Gold price forecast: $4,638 resistance in focus as XAU surges 2.30%

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Gold gains 2.3% today to $4,124

Highlights

Gold surged 2.3% after weaker U.S. non-farm payrolls reduced expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes.
U.S. dollar weakness and lowered yields increased gold’s appeal as investors sought currency protection and safe haven exposure.
Gold trades with constructive bullish momentum but faces overbought signals; expected 2–3 day range is $4,038 to $4,210, with 52% probability of further upside.

Demand spikes as payroll data shifts Fed rate expectations

Gold prices saw a sharp surge after the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data, which led market participants to scale back expectations for further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. This policy shift triggered significant U.S. dollar weakness, making gold more attractive to investors seeking protection against currency depreciation and lower yields. According to Tradingkey, these factors collectively generated robust demand for gold in the latest session.

Overbought signals emerge as bullish momentum challenges resistance

On the technical front, XAU/USD is trading above its $4,112 MA-20 and $4,054 MA-50 on the H4 chart, but remains below the $4,638 MA-200 on the daily timeframe. The Ichimoku Kijun level at $4,077 offers immediate support. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is elevated at 75.36, while the Stochastic RSI, Commodity Channel Index (CCI), and Bull/Bear Power all signal overbought conditions. Momentum indicators, including the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Average Directional Index (ADX), are positioned in buy mode, and the Awesome Oscillator is also aligned with bullish momentum. However, short-term oscillators highlight the risk of buyer exhaustion and warn of possible divergences, as end-of-session flows have tempered earlier gains.

Price stabilization likely as consolidation risk tempers upside

Looking ahead to the next two to three trading days, gold is expected to consolidate within a typical volatility band ranging from $4,038 to $4,210. The baseline scenario anticipates price stabilization in this range. There is a modest 52% probability that the price could extend further higher, though a potential pullback may develop if $4,077 support is breached.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees gold’s recent rally as fundamentally driven by weaker U.S. payroll data and related Fed policy expectations. He notes that, technically, multiple momentum and trend indicators favor bulls, but overbought readings and proximity to key resistance add risk. Kharitonov remains cautious on further upside, watching support at $4,077. "Base case is consolidation between $4,038 and $4,210 — a breakdown below $4,077 may trigger a pullback, so I stay defensive here."

Earlier, analysts noted that gold was exhibiting mixed momentum, with strong buyer interest but also caution due to overbought conditions and fluctuating technical signals. The latest macro-driven rally adds a new dimension, suggesting that while bullish sentiment persists, traders should monitor for volatility and any shifts in monetary policy that could trigger sharp moves beyond the current consolidation range.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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