Will Strait of Hormuz disruption fears boost Brent crude price? Key levels to watch

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Brent crude dips 0.41% to $78.56 today

Highlights

Heightened US-Iran tensions and uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz are increasing perceived supply risks for global oil flows.
Geopolitical concerns have overtaken fundamentals as the main driver of Brent crude positioning in the short term.
Brent crude shows a short-term bullish bias with high volatility and an expected trading range of $76.65–$80.47 over the next few days.

Geopolitical risks and Strait of Hormuz concerns drive market sentiment

Rising tensions between the US and Iran, along with conflicting reports on the status of the Strait of Hormuz, have injected renewed uncertainty into the outlook for global oil shipments, according to India. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical passageway for international crude flows, so concerns over its security can alter perceived supply risk and drive short-term positioning in the Brent crude market. This development has set the tone for trading, increasing focus on geopolitical risks amid an otherwise mixed fundamental backdrop.

Mixed momentum signals as technical barriers limit further upside

On the technical front, XBR is trading above the MA-20 ($77.86) and MA-50 ($77.14) on the hourly timeframe, but remains capped by the MA-200 ($81.51) on the daily chart. The Ichimoku Kijun at $77.57 is acting as immediate support. Momentum indicators are sending mixed signals: the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a strong buy reading and the Average Directional Index (ADX) indicates growing buyer strength, while the Stochastic RSI points to selling and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is neutral. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in buy territory, and Bull/Bear Power suggests intraday buyer dominance. The Awesome Oscillator is neutral, offering no clear direction.

High probability of upward move with limited near-term downside risk

In the short term, Brent crude is expected to trade within the $76.65–$80.47 range based on current volatility. The probability of an upward move is considered very high, with downside risks described as very low for the next several sessions. The baseline scenario calls for prices to consolidate sideways, but a sustained break above resistance could trigger further gains, while a dip below support may open the door to sharper declines.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that Brent crude is underpinned by rising geopolitical risks, with US-Iran tensions and Strait of Hormuz uncertainties dominating near-term sentiment. He sees technicals as mixed, with conflicting signals from momentum and oscillators, and prices capped by longer-term resistance. The analyst remains cautious, expecting consolidation in the $76.65–$80.47 range for now. "Base case remains sideways for Brent crude — until either $80.47 breaks or support at $76.65 fails, I remain defensive and neutral on direction."

Earlier, analysts noted that rising geopolitical tensions in the Gulf, particularly concerning the security of the Strait of Hormuz, have been a key factor heightening volatility and risk premia in oil markets. With Brent crude holding above critical short-term averages amid mixed momentum signals, traders should monitor for a decisive move above daily resistance as the next potential catalyst for directional momentum.

Source of Data: XBR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.