Coffee price holds near USX304.09–USX322.57 range as sellers dominate short-term trend

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Coffee up 0.23% today at USX313.33

Highlights

KC/USX trades below major moving averages, indicating sustained bearish pressure across short-, medium-, and long-term timeframes.
Oscillator signals are mixed, with MACD and RSI bearish, while momentum remains weak and some intraday indicators suggest brief buyer strength.
Price is expected to stay within the 304.09–322.57 range over the next few days, with a 68% probability of downside continuation.

Persistent bearish momentum as technical signals stay weak

On the H1 timeframe, KC/USX is below the MA-20 (USX318.46) and MA-50 (USX326.33), with the price also underneath the long-term MA-200 (USX325.1 daily). The Ichimoku Kijun at USX323.52 forms immediate resistance. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signals a strong sell, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) is neutral, reflecting weak momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates a sell, with both Stochastic RSI and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) neutral. Bull/Bear Power shows overbought conditions, suggesting only brief intraday buyer strength. The Awesome Oscillator is neutral, highlighting the lack of a confirmed trend.

Sideways bias expected amid higher risk of downside extension

Over the next two to three trading days, the expected price range for KC/USX is USX304.09 to USX322.57, reflecting typical volatility for the asset. The probability of an upward move stands at 32%, while a downward move is more likely with a 68% probability. Baseline expectations are for price action to remain sideways between support and resistance. A bullish scenario emerges only if there is a sustained breakout above USX323.52, while a move below the lower end of the range would confirm a bearish extension.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees coffee trading in a well-defined range after today's modest upward move. He believes bearish momentum dominates, but sideways action is still the base case as the price remains under key resistance. No fresh macro or sentiment drivers were found to alter the near-term outlook. He is constructive if a breakout above USX323.52 occurs, but expects further consolidation until then. "I see current volatility as normal and am watching closely for a decisive move above resistance before turning bullish."

Earlier, analysts noted that coffee futures were under sustained downward pressure, with bearish momentum dominating across multiple technical indicators. The latest data reinforces this view, highlighting a continued bias toward the downside and making a decisive move below the current support range a key risk factor for the days ahead.

Source of Data: KC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.