Silver holds steady as global silver market deficit confirmed by Silver Institute

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Silver gains 0.62% today to $58.23

Highlights

The global silver market will face its sixth consecutive deficit in 2026, with a shortfall expanding to 46.3 million ounces.
Rising US rate expectations increase holding costs for non-yielding silver, potentially dampening near-term investment appetite.
Silver price trend favors short- and medium-term buyers, with a projected 2–3 day range of $55.7 to $60.76 and modestly bullish probability.

Demand underpins silver amid supply deficit as Fed policy outlook tempers sentiment

The Silver Institute’s World Silver Survey 2026, as cited by Ebc Financial Group, confirms a sixth consecutive annual deficit for the global silver market, with the 2026 shortfall expanding to 46.3 million ounces. This persistent deficit points to an ongoing supply-demand imbalance that continues to support fundamental demand for Silver. At the same time, according to FXStreet, recent macroeconomic signals from the US and comments by Federal Reserve officials have heightened expectations for tighter monetary policy, increasing the cost of holding non-yielding assets such as Silver and potentially limiting near-term investment demand.

Upward momentum signaled as bullish indicators clash with overbought risks

Technically, XAG sits above the MA-20 at $57.66 and MA-50 at $57.74 on the hourly chart, but remains well below the long-term MA-200 at $76.56. Immediate support emerges at the Ichimoku Kijun level of $57.35. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Average Directional Index (ADX) are aligned bullishly, with the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) also suggesting upward momentum. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains neutral and the Stochastic RSI indicates overbought conditions. Bull/Bear Power is positive, confirming continued buyer dominance, and the Awesome Oscillator is consistent with the current upward move.

Range-bound trading likely as breakout or support breach could alter trend

In the short term, Silver is expected to move within a $55.7 to $60.76 band, with typical volatility relative to current levels. The base scenario is for price action to remain contained within this range for the next two to three days. If resistance is broken convincingly, an acceleration higher is possible; conversely, a move below support at $57.35 could trigger a deeper retracement.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees a mixed environment for Silver. Ongoing market deficits continue to offer fundamental support, but technical resistance and the prospect of tighter US monetary policy temper upside potential. He notes that buyer dominance persists, yet momentum could quickly turn if key support fails. "Until Silver breaks convincingly above $60.76, I remain cautious and focused on risk management."

Previously it was reported that easing geopolitical tensions and shifting rate expectations had tilted the outlook for silver toward further consolidation amid elevated volatility. The current market narrative adds weight to this by highlighting a persistent global supply deficit as a fundamental support, but traders should closely monitor the $57.35 level for signs of either continued bullish momentum or a corrective pullback.

Source of Data: XAG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.