Brent crude holds steady after US-Iran ceasefire reduces supply risk

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Brent crude down 0.42% at $73.07

Highlights

Higher crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have eased global supply concerns, reducing inflation pressures in energy markets.
A reported US-Iran ceasefire has lowered geopolitical risks, supporting calmer Brent crude and softer consumer inflation expectations.
Technical signals indicate Brent crude is likely to consolidate between $71.53 and $74.61, with a strong bearish bias prevailing in the short term.

Easing supply fears and ceasefire news drive market stability

Increased traffic through the Strait of Hormuz facilitated higher shipments of crude, alleviating concerns over supply disruptions in a route critical to global energy markets, according to Fxstreet. This rise in throughput has contributed to easing inflation pressures and diminished market anxieties over further monetary tightening. Additionally, news of a ceasefire deal between the US and Iran, as reported by Cryptonews, has lowered geopolitical tensions and supported softer consumer inflation expectations. Together, these developments have led to a generally more stable market context for Brent crude.

Intraday buyer momentum clashes with broader bearish indicators

The price sits above its 20-day moving average but is capped by the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, highlighting mild short-term support while broader trends remain under seller pressure. Immediate technical support is marked at the Ichimoku Kijun level of $72.94. On momentum indicators, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signals a strong sell and the Average Directional Index (ADX) remains neutral, suggesting weak trend strength. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a sell bias, while both the Stochastic RSI and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) read as neutral, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. Bull/Bear Power reflects notable buyer presence, whereas the Awesome Oscillator offers no clear direction. This divergence between intraday buyer signals and broader momentum indicators suggests short-term price weakness persists.

Bearish outlook favored as range-bound consolidation risks persist

Over the next two to three sessions, Brent crude is expected to move within a typical volatility band from $71.53 to $74.61. The likelihood of a sustained upward move is low, while downside action is much more probable. If price breaks above $74.61, a bullish scenario could develop, but a move below $71.53 would reinforce a bearish extension. The baseline expectation is for consolidation within this range amid ongoing market uncertainty.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees Brent crude trading in a holding pattern above short-term support, with little momentum to break out. He notes that recent news has eased immediate supply and geopolitical risks but does not offer a bullish catalyst. Technical signals and momentum remain weak, pointing to continued vulnerability on the downside. "Until price reclaims $74.61, caution dominates my short-term view — the path of least resistance is still lower."

Earlier, analysts noted that oil markets were stabilizing as supply through the Strait of Hormuz partially resumed, with traders viewing geopolitical risks as contained for the time being. Current market indicators now point to a fragile consolidation for Brent crude, with downside risk prevailing if the price falls below $71.53 in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: XBR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.