US natural gas is trading near $2.75 per MMBtu after another attempt to recover above $2.80 failed. The hourly chart remains bearish, with the price below the longer-term moving average and the sequence of lower highs intact.
Short-term consolidation between $2.70 and $2.80 may slow the decline, although it does not yet signal a sustainable reversal following the steep fall from above $3.20.
Storage build offers only temporary relief
The latest EIA report showed that working gas inventories increased by 28 Bcf in the week ended July 24, below market expectations of roughly 35–38 Bcf. Total stocks reached 3,084 Bcf, standing 32 Bcf below last year’s level but 185 Bcf, or 6.4%, above the five-year average. The smaller build briefly supported futures, although the persistent surplus relative to seasonal norms continues to limit buying interest. The next report, covering the week ended July 31, will be released on August 6. US Energy Information Administration
Record production offsets LNG demand
Supply fundamentals remain the main source of downward pressure. Lower 48 production averaged about 110.6 Bcf per day in July, matching the previous monthly record. LNG feedgas demand averaged close to 17.2 Bcf per day, slightly below June levels due partly to maintenance at Freeport LNG. Strong US manufacturing data may support industrial energy consumption, but domestic production is currently expanding fast enough to offset this improvement.
Cooler forecasts weaken consumption outlook
Weather models pointing to milder conditions across parts of the central and eastern United States have reduced expected power-sector demand for air conditioning. This limits the probability of sustained inventory withdrawals during the remaining summer period. A return of widespread heat could tighten daily balances and support a rebound, while persistent cooler revisions would reinforce expectations that storage will enter autumn comfortably above normal.
Middle East risks provide limited protection
The war in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have increased global LNG prices and raised concerns about Qatari supply routes. However, Henry Hub remains predominantly driven by US weather, production and export-terminal flows. Unless the conflict causes a direct disruption to global LNG shipments or materially increases demand for US cargoes, its supportive effect on American gas prices is likely to remain limited.
A break below $2.70 would expose $2.65–2.60, followed by $2.50–2.40. As I warned in Natural gas tests key daily support as Europe prepares for stronger LNG demand, bulls need to reclaim $2.80 and then $2.85–2.90 to weaken the bearish structure.
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