Silver price forecast: $63.61 support in focus as XAG trades lower

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Silver drops 1.05% to $65.05 today

Highlights

Geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran have caused oil prices to surge and raised concerns about global supply chains.
Expectations for further U.S. Federal Reserve rate hikes have shifted the macroeconomic outlook and influenced allocations in metals such as silver.
Silver trades in a short- and medium-term bullish setup with price consolidation, with a stated forecast range of $62.06 to $68.04.

Geopolitical risks and Fed policy shifts drive metal allocation

Ongoing geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran have led to a surge in oil prices, amplifying concerns over global supply chains and broader commodity volatility, according to Fxstreet. These developments have also heightened expectations for additional U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, altering the macroeconomic landscape and affecting investor allocation to metals like Silver. As market participants reassess risk exposure in response to these factors, trading conditions for Silver have reflected these heightened uncertainties.

Mixed momentum as strong signals clash with divergence indicators

On the working chart, XAG trades above both the MA-20 and MA-50, while remaining below the MA-200 level seen on the daily timeframe. The Ichimoku Kijun at $63.61 is currently the nearest support threshold. Momentum indicators are predominately strong: MACD is at Strong Buy, ADX is on a Buy signal, and both RSI at 64.29 and CCI are registering as Buy. Bull/Bear Power is overbought and indicates buyers are in control. However, Stochastic RSI is oversold, and the Awesome Oscillator is neutral, showing unclear alignment with the trend. The price action remains confined to the middle of today's range and exhibits moderate volatility against these conflicting signals.

Sideways action favored as range holds and breakout risk rises

In the short term, XAG is expected to consolidate within the $62.06 to $68.04 band, mapping to typical volatility for the period. The baseline scenario assumes continued sideways movement unless a breakout above resistance or a breakdown below support alters the range. There is a very high probability for an upward move relative to a very low likelihood of a downside scenario on current readings. Traders should monitor for potential breakouts as a shift above resistance could trigger a bullish extension, while any close beneath $63.61 would open up a bearish path.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Silver consolidating in a broad range as ongoing geopolitical risks and Fed policy expectations shape market sentiment. He highlights that strong momentum signals are counterbalanced by mixed technical readings, keeping price action contained for now. The expert believes the macro backdrop favors more upside if key support holds, though patience is required as volatility persists. "If Silver maintains above $63.61 and the macro environment stabilizes, I expect bulls to take the initiative toward the upper range near $68.04."

Earlier, analysts noted that silver was demonstrating short-term bullish momentum while remaining capped by longer-term resistance. The current analysis adds a new dimension, highlighting increased geopolitical and macroeconomic risks that may drive heightened volatility, with traders advised to closely monitor the $63.61 support level as a potential inflection point for upcoming price action.

Source of Data: XAG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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