Prolonged inflation lifts safe-haven appeal: Can silver price break $63.91 resistance?

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Silver up 0.75% today to $63.82

Highlights

Concerns about energy supply risks and persistent inflation are influencing market positioning and demand for silver.
Macroeconomic uncertainty is keeping investors focused on fundamental shifts in both safe-haven flows and industrial demand for silver.
Silver trades in a short-term bullish structure but faces moderate volatility and mixed technical signals, with a 55% probability of moving down between $63.07 and $64.57 over the next few days.

Safe-haven flows rise as inflation fears and energy risks persist

Persistent concerns over energy supply risks and prolonged inflation continue to shape market sentiment for silver, according to Fxstreet. These inflationary pressures can drive investors toward safe-haven assets like silver, while energy constraints may also lead to shifts in industrial demand and cost structures. As a result, broader macroeconomic uncertainty remains a central influence on positioning and near-term outlook, with market participants closely monitoring fundamental developments.

Divergent oscillators emerge as price straddles moving average barriers

On the technical front, XAG/USD is trading above its MA-20 at $63.25 but below the MA-50 at $64.58, with the longer-term MA-200 at $74.74 well overhead. The Ichimoku Kijun marks immediate resistance at $63.91. MACD and ADX both indicate clear intraday weakness, while the RSI stands at 45.28 (Sell) and Stochastic RSI is Overbought. In contrast, CCI and Bull/Bear Power suggest buying interest, highlighting notable divergence among oscillators and a mixed technical environment.

Downside risk edges higher as range-bound trading persists

In the near term, XAG/USD is expected to fluctuate between $63.07 and $64.57, representing a typical volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of a downside break is moderately higher at 55%, with upside moves estimated at 45%. The baseline scenario is for silver to remain range-bound, though a decisive move above $63.91 could open a bullish push, whereas a drop below $63.07 may trigger additional declines.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, believes silver remains in a tight range as macro risks like inflation and energy supply keep market sentiment cautious. He notes that mixed technical signals and resistance at $63.91 argue against taking strong directional bets for now. The downside risk is slightly elevated, but support at $63.07 is still holding. "Until we see a clear break from this range, I remain defensive and expect choppy price action to continue," he says.

Earlier, analysts noted that silver was facing ongoing technical and macroeconomic headwinds, with a prevailing downside bias in the short term. The latest analysis adds nuance by highlighting a mixed technical outlook and increasing divergence in momentum signals, suggesting traders should closely monitor immediate resistance at $63.91 for signs of a potential shift in direction.

Source of Data: XAG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.