Sugar holds steady after earlier sugarcane crushing in India boosts supply

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Sugar up 0.69% today at USX17.59

Highlights

India is considering cutting its sugar import duty as domestic prices reach record highs, which could boost global Sugar No. 11 Futures demand.
Sugar producers in major Indian states plan to begin crushing earlier than usual to increase domestic supply and potentially enable additional exports.
Sugar trades with bullish momentum and sustained buyer control, with an expected range of $17 to $18.18 over the coming days.

Rising international demand expected as India eyes import duty cut

India is considering a reduction in its sugar import duty after domestic prices reached record highs, according to Bloomberg. Such a policy change would lower barriers for imported sugar into one of the world's largest markets, potentially increasing international demand for Sugar No. 11 Futures and supporting global prices. In addition, Moneycontrol reported that factories in key sugarcane-producing states plan to start crushing earlier than usual to bolster supplies, a move that could somewhat ease upward price pressures if larger domestic output leads to additional exports.

Buyer dominance persists as momentum signals warn of overextension

On the technical front, SB/USX is currently holding above the MA-20 at USX16.88 and the MA-50 at USX16.2 on the working timeframe, as well as above the MA-200 at USX14.64 on the daily chart. The Ichimoku Kijun at USX16.94 is serving as immediate support for the current range. MACD and ADX both confirm active upside momentum, while RSI at 74.35, alongside Stoch RSI, CCI, and Bull/Bear Power, all indicate overbought conditions with strong buyer pressure. The Awesome Oscillator maintains a bullish tone. This combination of signals suggests a continuation of buyer dominance intraday, but with heightened risk of short-term pullbacks due to overextension on key indicators.

Upward consolidation likely as near-term volatility drives range

Over the next several trading days, SB is expected to trade within a range of USX17 to USX18.18, reflecting typical volatility relative to current levels. The probability currently favors an upward move, with a 71% chance of price moving higher and a 29% chance of a downward move. The baseline scenario is for the price to consolidate between immediate support and resistance, while an upside breakout could see SB approach the upper end of the range. Alternatively, failure to hold immediate support may result in a short-term pullback toward the lower boundary.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees sugar trading in a strong technical position above key moving averages. He notes India’s possible import duty cut as a significant fundamental factor that could support global prices, but points out early crushing in Indian states might cushion price rises if supply is exported. The analyst stays cautious as overbought readings suggest risk of short-term pullbacks despite current upside momentum. "Base case remains a consolidation between USX17 and USX18.18, with buyers dominating for now unless immediate support breaks."

Earlier, analysts noted that sustained investment in key producing regions and bullish technical trends were shaping an upward bias for sugar prices. The current market landscape adds another layer of potential volatility, as shifts in Indian import policy intersect with strong technical momentum, making the next upside breakout or a move below immediate support critical focal points for traders.

Source of Data: SB Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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