Sugar No. 11 price recovery attempt gains traction as oversold conditions trigger buying interest

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Sugar No. 11 jumps 2.08% to USX17.63

Highlights

India approved imports of 1 million tonnes of duty-free raw sugar to ease domestic supply concerns and reduce price pressures.
Importers now have up to two months to refine and sell imported sugar locally, targeting hoarding and inventory issues.
Sugar futures trade in a bullish alignment above key moving averages, with a likely short-term range of USX17.04 to USX17.89 despite mixed momentum signals.

Supply outlook improves as India relaxes import rules and inventories rise

The Indian government has taken concrete steps to ease supply constraints in the sugar market by relaxing rules for duty-free raw sugar imports, giving importers up to two months to refine and sell imported sugar domestically, according to Indiatoday. In addition, the approval to import 1 million tonnes of raw sugar, as reported by Orissapost, is set to bolster local inventories and reduce the risk of shortages driving up prices. These regulatory moves are expected to address concerns about hoarding and help ease domestic price pressures, while statements from the Indian Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association point to confidence in sufficient supply.

Bullish price action diverges from widespread bearish technical momentum

On the technical front, SB is trading above the MA-20 and MA-50 on the H1 timeframe, with the price also well above the MA-200 on the daily chart. The Ichimoku Kijun on the daily provides immediate support at USX17.41. Momentum indicators, including MACD, show ongoing selling pressure, while ADX remains neutral. Both RSI and CCI signal a sell bias; Stoch RSI is in oversold territory. Bull/Bear Power indicates seller dominance on an intraday basis, and the Awesome Oscillator supports a near-term downside tone, highlighting a divergence between upward price movement and generally bearish momentum signals.

Upside bias seen as consolidation narrows risk near resistance band

Over the next few days, the expected trading range for SB is USX17.04 to USX17.89 based on recent volatility. There is a slightly greater probability of an upward move, with scenarios favoring consolidation between identified support and resistance. A sustained breakout above USX17.89 would open the door for further gains, while a close beneath USX17.41 could increase the likelihood of a deeper retracement toward lower support.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees supply-side relief from India's regulatory action, but notes the technical backdrop remains fragile. He observes that, despite price hovering above key moving averages, most momentum indicators still signal ongoing selling pressure. Kharitonov remains cautious given the mixed signals and nearby resistance at USX17.89. "A break above USX17.89 is needed for confirmation — otherwise, I stay defensive as bearish momentum dominates."

Previously it was reported that Indian regulatory measures aimed at increasing domestic sugar supply were intensifying downside risks for global sugar prices. The current price action, coupled with ongoing policy adjustments and a backdrop of mixed technical signals, positions SB for heightened volatility, with the USX17.41 support level serving as a critical threshold for the near-term outlook.

Source of Data: SB Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.