Silver climbs after attention turns to upcoming U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls data

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Silver gains 1.85% to $67.38 today

Highlights

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish comments are increasing expectations that US interest rates will remain elevated to curb inflation.
Rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar are reducing demand for non-yielding assets like Silver as investors monitor upcoming US labor market data.
Silver remains under bearish pressure with persistent sell signals across technical indicators, trading in a forecasted $64.99 to $69.77 range barring a break through resistance or support.

Fed hawkish signals and firmer dollar drive outflows from silver

Hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium, as reported by CNBC, are driving expectations that U.S. policymakers will maintain higher interest rates to ensure inflation pressures subside, a stance that weighs on non-yielding assets such as Silver. This shift in policy outlook has led market participants to anticipate tighter financial conditions, with higher U.S. Treasury yields and a firmer dollar diminishing the relative appeal of Silver, according to Businesstoday and Investing.com. Investors are meanwhile turning their attention to upcoming U.S. labor market data, monitoring for any shifts in economic momentum that could influence monetary policy and generate further volatility, as noted by Fxstreet.

Persistent downward momentum as technical barriers and sell signals align

On the technical front, XAG/USD remains below both the MA-20 ($68.37) and MA-50 ($68.06) on the H4 chart, while also trading under the MA-200 ($73.7) on the daily timeframe. The Ichimoku Kijun is located at $68.4 and is acting as near-term resistance. Key support is identified at $64.99, with resistance found at $69.77 and $68.4, respectively. Momentum remains weak, as both MACD and ADX are on Sell, and RSI stands at 43.39 with a Sell signal. Several intraday oscillators—including Stochastic RSI, CCI, and Bull/Bear Power—are indicating oversold conditions, and the Awesome Oscillator is also signaling a Sell. This divergence between price action and indicators points to persistent downward momentum despite the day's advance.

Bullish break awaits amid rangebound trade and policy-driven volatility

Looking ahead, Silver is likely to be confined within the $64.99 to $69.77 range in the next several sessions, forming a sideways corridor between support and resistance. The probability for a short-term upward move slightly outweighs a downward scenario, with event risk from economic data and monetary policy remarks keeping volatility elevated. A sustained break above $68.4 would open the door to a more bullish scenario, while a decline through the $64.99 support zone would reinforce bearish momentum.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees a cautiously defensive scenario for Silver. He notes that hawkish Fed signals and strong technical resistance keep the asset under pressure. Momentum and sentiment remain weak, despite today’s rebound. "Until Silver repeatedly closes above $68.4, I remain skeptical about any sustained upside."

Earlier, analysts noted that silver was regaining its safe-haven appeal amid heightened geopolitical risk, even as macroeconomic headwinds limited significant upside. The current technical setup reinforces a more cautious outlook, with focus now shifting to whether silver can maintain support near $64.99 or break higher above $68.4 to set the next directional move.

Source of Data: XAG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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