Natural gas pulls back from $3.20 again as EIA data come into focus

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Natural gas tests support before EIA

Storage remains comfortable despite stronger demand

The fundamental balance still remains fairly comfortable. According to the EIA report for the week ending September 11, gas inventories increased by 44 Bcf to 3.298 Tcf. That is 118 Bcf above the five-year average, although 122 Bcf below the level seen a year earlier. The new report for the week ending September 18 is due today, September 24, and it could become the main short-term driver for the market.

In its September outlook, the EIA expects inventories to reach 3.969 Tcf by October 31, around 5% above the previous five-year average. The reason is persistently high production: the main increase in supply is coming from the Permian and Haynesville, while the EIA still expects record gas production volumes in 2026.

LNG exports and Middle East risks support prices

At the same time, LNG demand remains an important source of support. In the first half of 2026, U.S. LNG exports increased by 23% year over year to 17.4 Bcf/d, while the EIA expects around 17.3 Bcf/d in the second half of the year, followed by further growth to 18.7 Bcf/d in the first half of 2027. The Middle East is also adding a geopolitical risk premium to the market.

Restrictions on traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remain in place, and the EIA expects problems with export flows from the region to persist at least partially through the end of the year. Earlier, slower LNG tanker traffic through Hormuz had already pushed gas prices higher in Europe and Asia, although the impact on Henry Hub remains more indirect. For the U.S. market, this factor works through higher international prices and potentially stronger demand for LNG exports.

$3.10–3.06 becomes the key support zone

As a result, the market is currently balancing strong export demand and a geopolitical risk premium on one side against high domestic supply and comfortable inventories on the other. This is also why the move above $3.20 has so far failed to extend further.

If today’s EIA report shows a smaller-than-expected injection, the market could retest $3.20–3.23. A larger build in inventories, by contrast, would increase pressure, and prices could once again test support around $3.10–3.06. A break below the latter level, as I warned in Natural gas pulls back after breakout as $3.08–3.10 support comes into focus, would open the way toward the psychological $3.00 mark, where buying interest could emerge.

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