WTI is trading around $94.2 on October 1 and, after September’s spike above $106, has clearly moved into a deeper correction phase. On the 4-hour chart, the price remains below the fast and medium-term moving averages, while recent rebounds have quickly run into selling pressure.
At the same time, the $92.0-91.5 area is still holding and remains the nearest support zone for the market.
Cushing stocks add pressure
The latest EIA report added pressure on the crude side of the market. U.S. commercial crude inventories rose by around 0.9 million barrels in the week ending September 25, to 427.3 million barrels, while stocks at Cushing increased to 24.3 million barrels. For WTI, this is particularly important because rising inventories at Cushing reduce local supply tightness.
At the same time, the autumn refinery maintenance season is gradually reducing processing rates, leaving more barrels within the system. However, the overall balance does not look quite as bearish: total commercial inventories of crude oil and petroleum products declined over the week, while the distillates market remains noticeably tighter than the crude market.
Global market remains tighter
Outside the U.S., conditions remain significantly tighter. According to the IEA, global observed inventories have fallen by more than 500 million barrels since February, with August bringing another substantial decline. The main reason is ongoing disruptions in the Middle East.
Flows from Gulf countries have partially recovered through alternative routes and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, but exports of crude oil, and especially refined products, remain well below levels seen before the escalation of the conflict. Additional risks persist in the Red Sea and around Bab el-Mandeb, meaning the geopolitical premium in oil has declined since the September surge but has not disappeared completely.
As a result, WTI is currently caught between a more comfortable crude supply situation within the U.S. and a much tighter global physical market. The IEA expects a noticeable decline in global supply in 2026 despite simultaneously lowering its demand outlook.
$92 area remains key support
Rebounds toward $95.50 are meeting selling interest, which could lead to a break below support around $94.00 and a decline toward at least $93.00-92.50. A break below the latter area, as I wrote in the article WTI falls toward $94 as recovering exports ease supply fears, would open the way toward $91.50-91.00, while a move through resistance could push the price toward $97.00-98.00.
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