Purdue-CME farm sentiment index declines as input cost worries hit record high

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Farm Sentiment Index Drops

Highlights

The September Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer drops to 123 from 135 as 52% of farmers cite record-high input cost concerns.
Indexes for Current Conditions, Future Expectations, Farm Financial Performance, and Farm Capital Investment all decline, signaling increased financial caution among producers.
Short-term farmland value expectation edges down to 126 while long-term rises to a record 168, with inflation and interest rates key considerations for respondents.

September survey points to weaker farm financial outlook

As reported by CME Group, the September Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer shows 52% of respondents identify higher input costs as their top concern, a record high in the survey. Overall farmer sentiment falls to 123 in September from 135 in August, driven in part by an 18-point drop in the Index of Current Conditions.

Michael Langemeier, principal investigator of the barometer and director of Purdue's Center for Commercial Agriculture, says producer sentiment reflects a growing divide between near-term concerns and longer-term expectations. The Index of Future Expectations declines 9 points, while 35% of respondents say their operation is more likely to be worse off financially a year from now, compared with 22% who expect conditions to improve.

Financial caution also appears in other measures. The Farm Financial Performance Index drops to 90 from 103 in August, and the Farm Capital Investment Index slips 6 points to 39.

Farmland values stay firm as producers weigh rents, exports and competitiveness

The survey, conducted Sept. 14-18 among 400 farmers nationwide, finds that the Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index edges down 1 point to 126, but the Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index rises 5 points from August to a record 168. Respondents say alternative investments, inflation and interest rates are the factors most likely to influence farmland values.

Among corn and soybean producers, 73% expect cash rents to remain unchanged in 2027. Of the 22% who expect rents to rise next year, about 47% anticipate an increase of 0% to 5%.

Cover crop use remains notable, with 46% of respondents saying they currently plant cover crops. About one-third of that group say they have used them for more than 10 years, while 15% say cover crops are planted on a majority of their acreage; another 22% say they planted cover crops in the past.

On trade, 37% of corn and soybean producers expect U.S. soybean exports to increase over the next five years, while 10% expect a decline. Competitiveness against Brazil remains a concern, with just under 20% of respondents saying they are not worried about the U.S. position relative to Brazil.

The survey also shows producer views on the national direction weakening. Since the question was introduced in July 2025, September is the first month in which fewer than half of respondents say the U.S. is headed in the right direction.

Our earlier article on surging diesel prices explained how record-high fuel costs were squeezing U.S. trucking and agricultural users and prompting policymakers to weigh emergency relief measures such as expanding access to tax-exempt diesel and potential tax waivers. We also noted that attempts to manage prices through market restrictions can have unintended consequences for supply chains and trade flows, potentially pushing costs higher in import-reliant regions and reshaping export relationships.

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