Will Brent crude price remain within range amid energy ceasefire talk and Trump on Iran?

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Brent crude up 0.38% at $102.93

Highlights

The proposed energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine reduces the probability of severe supply disruptions in Brent crude.
Statements by the U.S. President regarding Iran shift perceptions of geopolitical risk premiums and supply dynamics for Brent.
Brent crude trades within a bullish technical structure, projected to range from $101.21 to $104.65 over 2 to 3 days.

Geopolitical negotiations temper supply risk and steady market sentiment

Geopolitical developments continue to shape Brent crude's landscape, with a proposed 'energy ceasefire' between Russia and Ukraine highlighted as a sign of potential stabilization in regional supply risks, according to Thehindubusinessline. This development reduces the likelihood of sharp supply interruptions, thereby encouraging steadier expectations among market participants. Additional remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump on Iran further contribute to shifting perceptions of supply-side dynamics and geopolitical risk premiums. Both events feed into current trading sentiment and help define the prevailing market tone.

Buying momentum persists as technicals show divided signals

On the H1 chart, XBR is trading above the MA-20 at $102.08 and the MA-50 at $101.91, with the MA-200 well below at $92.63. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at $102.67 as immediate support. MACD continues to signal upward momentum, while ADX remains neutral, indicating only moderate trend strength. RSI and Stoch RSI are both in the buy zone, and CCI is in overbought territory, pointing to stretched intraday readings. Bull/Bear Power confirms buyer dominance, but the Awesome Oscillator is neutral, suggesting some divergence among indicators.

Range-bound outlook persists as volatility shapes upside risk

Looking ahead, Brent crude is expected to remain within the $101.21 to $104.65 range over the next 2–3 trading days, driven by typical volatility relative to current levels. The probability of an upward move remains very high, with the downside seen as unlikely unless price falls below $101.21. Should the price consolidate, a breakout above $104.65 would imply additional gains, while a dip below $101.21 could expose further support zones.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, macro and fundamental analyst at Traders Union, emphasizes the stabilizing impact of recent geopolitical news on Brent crude. He sees the proposed 'energy ceasefire' reducing immediate supply risks, which supports bullish sentiment. Ongoing comments from the U.S. administration on Iran add some uncertainty, but the market appears resilient. Technical momentum is intact with buyers in control above key levels. "As long as Brent crude holds above $101.21, I remain positive on further upside in the near term."

Earlier, analysts noted that oil prices remained elevated amid persistent geopolitical tensions and uncertainty over potential energy supply disruptions. With Brent crude now holding above key technical levels as risks from regional conflict appear to be stabilizing, traders should closely watch for a breakout above $104.65, which could signal renewed upside momentum.

Source of Data: XBR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.