Copper price sees downward move as seller pressure builds below key technical levels

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Copper drops 1.34% as supply fears ease

Highlights

BHP Group avoided a labor strike at the Escondida copper mine, removing an immediate threat to global copper supply.
Reduced risk of supply disruption has limited concerns over shortages, which previously supported higher copper prices.
Copper trades below short- and medium-term moving averages, bearish momentum dominates, and the expected range is $6.5287 to $6.6137 for the next sessions.

Supply risks dissipate as Escondida mine strike threat recedes

BHP Group’s Escondida mine in Chile, the world’s largest copper operation, successfully averted a labor strike that could have severely restricted global copper supply, according to Bloomberg. The resolution removed immediate risks of supply disruption, reducing the likelihood of shortages that would have otherwise lifted market prices. This development has weighed on sentiment within the copper market, as supply concerns abated and sellers regained control.

Multiple sell signals as price tests technical supports

Technical analysis of HG shows the price moving below the MA-20 and MA-50, while remaining above the MA-200. The nearest resistance is the Ichimoku Kijun level at $6.6634, and short-term support emerges at $6.5287. On the indicator front, RSI reads at 33.13 (Sell), MACD gives a Strong Sell signal, and ADX also confirms a Sell bias, illustrating persistent downside momentum. Both CCI and Bull/Bear Power are in negative territory, highlighting seller dominance, whereas Stochastic RSI and the Awesome Oscillator provide neutral signals. There is no meaningful divergence among these technical indicators.

Sideways trade favored as breakout chances remain limited

Over the next two to three sessions, copper is expected to fluctuate in a volatility band between $6.5287 and $6.6137. The probability of an upward breakout remains very low, with a bullish scenario contingent upon a firm break above $6.6634 resistance. Conversely, a drop below $6.5287 would reinforce a bearish outlook, while the baseline scenario anticipates copper trading sideways within the established range.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees copper under pressure as sellers control sentiment following the averted strike at Escondida. He believes technical indicators confirm a prevailing bearish setup, with price stuck below key moving averages and support tested at $6.5287. Downside risk remains elevated, while a bullish breakout is increasingly unlikely unless $6.6634 is reclaimed. "The base case is for sideways to lower price action — I remain cautious unless the $6.6634 resistance breaks convincingly."

Earlier, analysts noted that potential supply shortages had led miners to consider restarting idle copper assets, reflecting broader concerns about structural deficits driven by rising global demand. The successful resolution of labor tensions at Escondida and prevailing technical weaknesses now signal a more balanced supply outlook in the short term, making $6.5287 a key support level to monitor should downside risks intensify.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.