Sibanye-Stillwater mine restart plans highlight copper supply squeeze

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Sibanye mine restart & copper supply

Highlights

Sibanye-Stillwater will invest about $340 million to restart Australia’s Mt Lyell mine, targeting annual copper output of 26,000 tons by 2029.
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence tracks nearly 1 million tons of possible annual copper supply from global mine restarts by 2030, addressing structural deficits.
Despite restart momentum, S&P Global Energy forecasts global copper demand rising 50% to 42 million tons by 2040, warning of a 10 million ton shortfall even with expansions.

Mine restarts gain momentum amid supply concerns

As reported by Reuters, mining companies are reviving dormant copper projects as higher prices and forecasts of structural deficits improve the economics of bringing older sites back into operation. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence is tracking almost 1 million tons of potential annual copper production from mine restarts by 2030, equal to more than 4% of current global output.

Many of the idled mines are relatively small, but they already have infrastructure, known ore bodies and permitting histories, which can shorten development timelines. S&P Global Energy says new discoveries take an average of 17 years to reach production, making brownfield revivals a quicker source of supply.

Sibanye-Stillwater, which bought Mt Lyell in 2023 for $10 million, approved a restart in September after the Tasmanian mine stood idle for 12 years. The company expects to spend about $340 million on the project and plans to ramp up annual production to 26,000 tons after it comes back online in 2029.

As part of the upgrade, Sibanye has digitized hand-drawn geological and mine plans dating back more than a century. Executive Vice President Barry Harris said the records remain precise despite their age, and the company is preparing a more automated operation when the mine reopens.

Global projects face political and operational hurdles

Analysts say restarts can help bridge part of the expected supply gap as copper demand rises with the energy transition and data center expansion. S&P Global Energy projects global copper demand will increase 50% to 42 million tons a year by 2040, while warning the market could still face a structural shortfall of 10 million tons even with expansions and restarts.

Other projects are also moving ahead, though not without risks. In Zambia, partial production has resumed at the upper section of the Luanshya mine, which was offline for more than two decades, and the operation targets 100,000 tons a year by 2030. In Argentina, Glencore has said it plans to restart Alumbrera in the second half of 2027, producing 75,000 tons of copper over four years while supporting the development of the nearby Agua Rica deposit.

Some of the largest potential additions remain uncertain. About half of the restart capacity tracked by Benchmark comes from Cobre Panama and Panguna in Papua New Guinea, where political and social conditions are central to any reopening. Panguna, closed since 1989, was the site of an attack on a mining camp last month, underscoring the security and governance issues that can complicate revival plans.

Wood Mackenzie says viable restart candidates are limited, and revived mines average about 33,000 tons of annual output, below many extensions at existing operations. At Mt Lyell, Sibanye says the mine will cost about $5,644 a ton to operate, create about 300 jobs and rely partly on remote-operated loaders, reflecting a shift from the manual working methods that existed before the mine closed in 2014 after fatal accidents.

Our earlier article covered Malaysia’s plans to introduce a “user-pays” electricity pricing system for large consumers such as data centres and energy-intensive industries to ease pressure on household power bills. It outlined the government’s rationale tied to rising demand and higher generation costs, and noted parallel measures like time-of-use tariffs to help manage consumption and reduce peak-load strain.

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