Will copper price hold $6.52 support amid Fed rate decision uncertainty?

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Copper drops 0.87% today to $6.5957

Highlights

Copper traded near its highest close in two weeks as markets anticipated the Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
Uncertainty over upcoming US monetary policy has led to cautious positions and consolidation in copper futures markets.
Technical indicators show copper under bearish momentum, with price expected to consolidate between $6.5298 and $6.6616 over the next 2 to 3 days.

Traders shift to caution as Fed decision adds policy uncertainty

Copper traded near its highest close in the past two weeks as traders awaited the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision, according to Bloomberg. The expectation of a key policy announcement from the central bank has introduced greater uncertainty and led to more cautious positioning among copper futures traders. This environment has supported a period of stabilization and consolidation in copper markets, as participants weigh the potential impact of monetary policy changes.

Bearish momentum confirmed as technicals breach key moving averages

On the technical front, HG remains below the MA-20 and MA-50 on the hourly chart, with the long-term MA-200 continuing to offer a cushion beneath prices. The Ichimoku Kijun establishes immediate resistance at $6.6537, while price movement has stayed near session lows. Momentum indicators remain decisively bearish: MACD signals sell, ADX indicates seller control, and both RSI and CCI, along with Stoch RSI, all point to oversold conditions. Bull/Bear Power highlights dominance by sellers, and the Awesome Oscillator further confirms the prevailing downtrend, with low volatility and no major divergences across indicators.

Range-bound outlook with higher downside risk on volatility bands

Over the next two to three trading days, copper is expected to consolidate within a range of $6.5298 to $6.6616, in line with typical volatility band relative to current levels. There is a 73% probability for a downward move and 27% likelihood of an upward break. Should the price move above the immediate resistance at $6.6537, this would open potential for fresh upward momentum, while a sustained drop beneath $6.5298 could indicate sellers extending control and further downside risk.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees copper trading in a period of uncertainty as market participants await the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. He notes that technical signals remain bearish, with key support intact but sellers dominating momentum indicators. The analyst stays cautious, favoring consolidation within $6.5298 to $6.6616 unless a clear breakout emerges. "Until copper reclaims levels above $6.6537, I remain defensive and watch for further downside risk."

Earlier, analysts noted that copper’s recent rally was intertwined with debates over the sustainability of AI-driven demand and warnings that prices might be running ahead of fundamentals. The current technical setup underscores ongoing downside risk, with the $6.5298 level now critical to watch for any potential extension of the prevailing seller dominance in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.