Copper price outlook: Sideways trading likely with strong underlying momentum

Traders Union
All News
Commodities
Copper slips 0.2% to $6.62 today

Highlights

Copper buyers have paid premiums up to $250 million to secure supply amid concerns about new US tariffs and ongoing tightness.
Antofagasta plc reported copper production rose 7% quarter-on-quarter to 151,900 tonnes in Q3 2026, with inventories reduced at Los Pelambres.
Copper trades in a bullish technical structure with ongoing buying pressure, forecast to move within a $6.5698 to $6.6858 range over the next 2 to 3 days.

Supply urgency rises as buyers pay premiums on tariff risks

Buyers in the copper market have paid premiums as high as $250 million to secure supply in the face of potential new US tariffs, highlighting the urgency for forward coverage and suggesting continued supply tightness, according to Bloomberg. Meanwhile, Antofagasta plc reported a 7% quarter-on-quarter rise in copper output to 151,900 tonnes for the third quarter of 2026, as its Los Pelambres mine reduced accumulated inventories, News Metal noted. Easing supply concerns combined with firmer US inflation data have also contributed to shifts in trading activity and profit-taking, Finimize reported.

Overbought reading emerges amid strong momentum and support

On the technical front, the price remains above the MA-20 and MA-50 on the H1 chart, and sits comfortably above the longer-term MA-200. The Ichimoku Kijun line at $6.5829 provides immediate support. Indicators such as the MACD, ADX, CCI, Bull/Bear Power, and Awesome Oscillator all point to ongoing buying pressure. The RSI is at 60 and registers a buy reading, while the Stochastic RSI is currently overbought. This combination implies strong underlying momentum but also introduces the risk of a near-term pause or minor pullback given the overbought signals.

Sideways bias dominates as breakout risks shape short-term outlook

Looking ahead over the next two to three trading days, the typical volatility band is expected to fall between $6.5698 and $6.6858. There is a 73% probability that copper will move upward, with only a 27% chance of a decline. The base case calls for price action to remain confined to a sideways corridor, while a breakout above the upper end of this range could trigger additional buying. A move below immediate support would increase the likelihood of further downside.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees the large premiums paid by buyers as a signal of significant supply-side uncertainty, with macro risks from US tariffs driving urgent hedging. He notes that rising production and inventory releases are helping stabilize the market for now, while technical indicators show underlying bullish momentum. Karapetjanc believes copper's medium-term outlook is constructive, though short-term volatility and overbought signals may slow gains. "With supply anxieties still in play and strong momentum on the chart, I expect any dips to attract new buyers in the coming days."

Earlier, analysts noted that external supply disruptions and shifting market expectations had become key factors influencing industrial commodities. With current trading now focused on tight copper supply and evolving tariff risks, market participants should closely monitor potential breakouts above the $6.6858 level for signs of renewed upward momentum.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.