Brent crude holds steady as escalating tensions in the Middle East keep focus on oil supply

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Brent crude steady today at $105.71

Highlights

Market participants assess reports that the US may ease restrictions on shadow fleet oil tankers, introducing new uncertainty for Brent crude supply flows.
Ongoing tensions in the Middle East contribute to risk perceptions around possible supply disruptions from a key oil-producing region.
Brent crude is trading with a bullish bias above key moving averages, with a projected trading range of $103.98 to $107.44 and most indicators mixed or neutral.

Supply uncertainty rises as US eyes shadow fleet policy shift

Brent crude prices have been shaped by reports that the US may ease restrictions on so-called "shadow fleet" oil tankers, which, according to Investing.com, could shift global transport flows and influence supply availability. This potential policy adjustment adds a layer of uncertainty around future supply, shaping risk perceptions among traders. Additionally, escalating tensions in the Middle East continue to contribute to market caution as participants assess potential disruptions in a key oil-producing region.

Mixed momentum as support holds but indicators diverge

On the technical front, XBR trades above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, with immediate support at the Ichimoku Kijun level of $105.21. Momentum remains mixed: MACD is Neutral while ADX signals underlying weakness. RSI registers 46.53, placing it in Sell territory and pointing to softer buying strength. Both Stoch RSI and CCI are Neutral, with Bull/Bear Power showing buyers maintain some short-term edge, though the Awesome Oscillator suggests intraday selling pressure, highlighting divergence among indicators.

Consolidation favored as moderate volatility tempers directional risk

Looking ahead, XBR is expected to remain within the $103.98–$107.44 range in the near term as volatility stays moderate. The probability of an upward move stands at 78%, with a 22% chance of a decline. Most likely, Brent crude will consolidate unless resistance is broken, while a breach of immediate support would increase the risk of further downside.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees Brent crude as being pressured by shifting regulatory and geopolitical uncertainties. The US move on 'shadow fleet' tankers clouds the supply outlook, while Middle East tensions keep sentiment restrained. Technicals show price above key averages, but mixed momentum and RSI weakness limit conviction. "Unless the $105.21 support breaks, I remain cautious and favor rangebound positioning in Brent."

Earlier, analysts noted that supply risks from Middle East tensions and potential adjustments to shipping sanctions were keeping oil markets volatile and sensitive to geopolitical developments. The latest technical setup suggests traders should watch for a decisive move beyond the $107.44 resistance, which could signal a directional breakout amid ongoing uncertainty in transport policy and regional stability.

Source of Data: XBR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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