$111.04 resistance keeps Brent crude oil flat

Traders Union
All News
Commodities
Brent crude oil gains 0.35% today

Highlights

President Trump waived key US sanctions and tariffs on Russia, allowing more Russian fuel exports into global markets and easing some price pressures.
Ongoing Middle East tensions and recent shipping disruptions sustain supply risks, preventing significant downside for crude prices.
Brent crude trades with a strong bullish technical structure, seen consolidating in the $105.2 to $111.04 range with very low downside probability.

Regulatory relief offsets supply risks amid persistent Mideast tensions

US President Donald Trump's decision to waive key sanctions and tariffs on Russia allows increased Russian fuel exports to reach global markets, directly impacting the supply side and easing some upward pressure on prices. At the same time, ongoing tensions in the Middle East alongside recent shipping disruptions sustain elevated supply risks, highlighting continued market sensitivity, according to Brecorder. Together, these factors create a dynamic backdrop in which regulatory relief creates softening on one front while persistent geopolitical uncertainties limit downside potential.

Mixed momentum as key support converges with indecisive indicators

On the four-hour chart, $108.12 sits above the MA-20 at $106.76 and the MA-50 at $106.05, while daily MA-200 is positioned much lower at $93.51. The Ichimoku Kijun line at $106.72 functions as the immediate support level. Momentum indicators deliver mixed signals: MACD displays a strong buy, yet ADX leans to a sell, reflecting uncertainty in trend strength. RSI registers at 52.89, with both Stochastic RSI and CCI reading neutral, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions. Bull/Bear Power indicates intraday buyer dominance, while the Awesome Oscillator remains neutral—collectively pointing to moderate but inconclusive momentum.

Rangebound scenario as volatility and resistance define near-term risks

In the short term, XBR is expected to consolidate within a range of $105.2 to $111.04, consistent with its typical volatility band relative to current levels. The base case anticipates continued oscillation within these boundaries. Should resistance levels break, a push toward the upper limit of the range is likely. Conversely, a swift decline below key support could trigger a deeper retracement, though this is seen as having very low probability in the current environment.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees the waiving of US sanctions on Russia as a positive shift for oil supply dynamics. He believes that while this additional supply could soften price pressures, persistent tensions in the Middle East keep market risks on the radar. The technical landscape appears constructive but not decisive, with indicators showing moderate and mixed momentum. In the short term, consolidation is the most likely outcome, yet upside breakout remains possible if stability holds. "Market sentiment is cautiously upbeat, and I expect Brent to remain supported, with emerging supply relief offering more flexibility for bulls."

Earlier, analysts noted that fluctuations in global oil supply and geopolitical risks were shaping the directional outlook for fuel prices, particularly as market volatility persisted. The current backdrop adds a regulatory dimension with eased sanctions balancing supply pressures, making Brent crude likely to stay rangebound near-term as traders watch for any breakout above $111.04 or breakdown below $105.20.

Source of Data: XBR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.