MPOC expects palm oil prices to remain above RM4,600 in November

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Palm oil prices steady in November

Highlights

MPOC expects palm oil prices to remain above RM4,600 per metric ton in November 2026, supported by declining inventories and seasonal production.
Malaysia's palm oil exports contracted 12% in September due to competition from Indonesia and vessel availability issues, but are expected to recover from October to December.
Palm oil futures traded at RM4,776 per metric ton on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives, up 18% year to date, driven by biodiesel consumption and high energy prices.

This article was translated from the original. Read the original version by our correspondent here.

Price outlook supported by exports and seasonal production

According to The Edge Malaysia, citing the Malaysian Palm Oil Council, or MPOC, palm oil prices are expected to remain above RM4,600 per metric ton next month as exports improve and production begins its seasonal decline. The council said Malaysia's palm oil inventories are expected to start falling from November 2026 through February 2027, providing further support for prices in the final quarter of 2026.

MPOC said continued biodiesel consumption and India's recent move to reduce import duties on vegetable oils are expected to support demand for Malaysian palm oil in the coming months. The council said production this year likely peaked in September and is expected to decline seasonally over the next five months.

Stocks of the edible oil, used in a range of products from infant formula to soap, rose by nearly 25% in September to a record high. Over the same period, production in Malaysia, the world's second-largest producer after Indonesia, surged 16%, even though the usual cycle sees production begin to rise in March and April and peak from September to November.

Export pressure seen as temporary, market remains supported

Palm oil exports contracted 12% amid competition from Indonesia, as the country's exporters brought shipments forward ahead of new regulations and higher export duties scheduled for October. Limited vessel availability in the Strait of Malacca also contributed to the decline, but MPOC believes September's export weakness is likely to be temporary.

Shipments are expected to rise significantly from October to December as vessel availability improves. Palm oil prices are also still up 18% year to date despite retreating from their peak, with palm oil futures trading at RM4,776 per metric ton on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives on Thursday.

MPOC said persistently high energy prices continue to support global vegetable oil and biodiesel markets, particularly in Indonesia. The council also noted that Indonesian palm oil consumption for biodiesel reached a record monthly high in August, as global efforts to increase palm-based methyl ester blending were stepped up to ease the surge in petroleum prices caused by the Iran War.

In our earlier report on Malaysia's crude palm oil reference price for November, we explained how the reference price reduction to RM4,323.78 per ton kept the export duty at the maximum rate of 10% because it remained above the RM4,050 threshold. We also outlined the implications for monthly export costs and the competitiveness of Malaysian shipments amid regional competition.

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