Copper climbs as potential US tariffs on copper imports trigger buying interest

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Copper gains 1.9% today to $6.51

Highlights

US copper inventories at London Metal Exchange warehouses have reached their highest level in over 12 years as companies accelerate imports to get ahead of potential tariffs.
Domestic stockpiling has caused regional price spreads, with US 'duty-paid' copper prices in New York diverging from Chinese benchmarks as policy dynamics evolve.
Copper is forecast to consolidate between $6.4006 and $6.6384 over the next 2 to 3 days, with technical indicators suggesting a higher likelihood of a downward move.

Domestic stockpile surge and tariff risks reshape trading sentiment

US copper stockpiles at London Metal Exchange warehouses have reached a 12.5-year high as firms accelerate imports ahead of potential new tariffs, according to Brecorder. This front-loaded supply response has expanded domestic inventories, altering the balance between physical demand and liquidity in the market. Meanwhile, Finimize reports that copper is now trading with pronounced regional price differences, with tariff-sensitive 'US duty-paid' prices in New York diverging from Chinese benchmarks due to shifting policy dynamics. These evolving supply and regulatory factors are shaping trading sentiment and underpinning recent market activity.

Divergent technical signals as near-term support meets mixed momentum

HG trades above its MA-20 at $6.5106 and MA-200 at $6.2976, but remains below the MA-50 at $6.5762, with $6.5112 on the Ichimoku Kijun providing immediate support. MACD signals strong sell momentum, while ADX supports a bearish interpretation. RSI reads 40.46, indicating mild selling pressure but not oversold conditions. Both Stoch RSI and CCI are neutral, while Bull/Bear Power shows clear buyer dominance in the intraday session. A notable divergence persists among oscillators, reflecting mixed short-term conviction in the current price region.

Downside bias prevails amid constrained breakout scenarios

In the short term, copper is expected to trade between $6.4006 and $6.6384 over the next 2–3 trading days. Probabilities favor a downward move with a 67% likelihood, while upward breakout potential is limited to 33%. Base case anticipates ongoing consolidation within this volatility band relative to current levels, with a bullish scenario possible on a break above resistance or a sharper retreat if support at $6.5112 gives way.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Traders Union analyst, sees copper’s macro backdrop as constructive given record US stockpiles and evolving global policy dynamics. He believes regional price segmentation and preemptive supply moves are underpinning buyer confidence, even as some indicators remain mixed in the near term. The analyst expects volatility but views the medium-term risk-reward as attractive for active market participants. "Fundamental shifts in supply and tariffs are creating new opportunities — I remain positive on copper’s outlook within the current range."

Previously it was reported that copper was consolidating as market participants weighed increased inventories and shifting investor sentiment against supportive long-term fundamentals. The latest developments underscore a heightened focus on policy-driven supply dynamics and regional price spreads, with traders advised to monitor $6.5112 as a pivotal support level in the days ahead.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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