Cocoa price falls amid weak momentum and continued selling pressure

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Cocoa slides 1.13% to $5,529 today

Highlights

Cocoa trades below short- and medium-term moving averages, indicating persistent bearish momentum in the near term.
Bearish indicator readings dominate, with MACD, ADX, AO, and RSI showing continued downside and some oscillators flagging oversold conditions.
For the next 2 to 3 trading days, the expected price range is $5,444 to $5,613, with a 78% probability of further declines if support at $5,444 breaks.

Bearish momentum strengthens as technical support holds and oscillators flash oversold

On the hourly chart, CC is positioned below the MA-20 at $5,586 and MA-50 at $5,690, while daily support holds above the MA-200 at $4,620. The Ichimoku Kijun at $5,626 acts as a near-term resistance. Momentum indicators are skewed bearish: MACD, ADX, and Awesome Oscillator all favor sellers. RSI supports a Sell signal, CCI is in oversold territory, and Bull/Bear Power and Stoch RSI both highlight intraday selling. However, oversold readings on several oscillators hint at potential for a technical bounce or short-term divergence.

Short-term downside favored as volatility bands define near-term risk

In the next 2–3 trading days, the price is likely to oscillate between $5,444 and $5,613. Statistical probabilities favor further downside, with a 78% chance of a move lower and only a 22% chance of recovery. The base case scenario anticipates price stabilization within this volatility band. A decisive break above $5,626 would open the door to renewed buying, while a decline below $5,444 would confirm additional downside momentum as sellers remain in control.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees bearish momentum dominating cocoa as technical signals remain negative. He believes sellers are in control below $5,626, with oversold readings hinting at only minor counter-moves. The base case is a stabilization between $5,444 and $5,613, but a break of these levels would likely extend the decline. "Until cocoa decisively reclaims $5,626, I remain defensive and expect further downside risk."

Earlier, analysts noted that Lindt & Sprüngli faced significant headwinds after raising chocolate prices due to elevated cocoa costs, resulting in weaker consumer demand in key regions such as Germany. The ongoing decline in cocoa futures and strong bearish momentum now highlight the importance of monitoring support at $5,444, as a break below this level would signal additional downside risk for the short term.

Source of Data: CC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.