US Federal Reserve policy decision pressures Silver to the downside

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Silver slides 1.03% to $53.34 today

Highlights

Silver declined as a stronger US Dollar and easing Middle East tensions weighed on safe-haven demand.
Investors are adjusting silver positions ahead of the US Federal Reserve policy decision, affecting demand outlook.
XAG/USD trades below key moving averages with negative momentum, projecting a $51.08 to $55.60 range and a 74% probability of further downside.

Weaker demand as US dollar firms and safety bids recede

Silver has come under renewed selling pressure, driven by a stronger US Dollar and reduced safe-haven demand as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have recently eased. According to FXStreet, the approach of the upcoming US Federal Reserve policy decision has further influenced investor sentiment, prompting market participants to adjust their positions in anticipation of potential interest rate developments. These macro factors have contributed to a weaker demand outlook for Silver in the current session.

Oversold signals deepen as technical resistance holds firm

On the H4 chart, XAG trades below its MA-20 at $53.86 and MA-50 at $55.04, with price action also remaining under the MA-200 at $67.42 on the daily timeframe. Immediate resistance is identified at the Ichimoku Kijun level of $53.62. Technical indicators reinforce the prevailing sell pressure: MACD and ADX both signal a strong negative bias, while RSI at 23.93, Stochastic RSI, and CCI all confirm oversold conditions. Bull/Bear Power remains in sellers' territory on an intraday basis, and the Awesome Oscillator continues to align with the downward trend.

Downside favored as likelihood of further losses increases

In the short term, XAG is expected to trade in a range between $51.08 and $55.60 over the next three trading days, reflecting typical volatility relative to current levels. The probability of an upward move stands at 26%, while the likelihood of further decline is higher at 74%. If price can break above resistance levels, a quick upward move may follow; conversely, a drop below support would likely result in additional losses.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Silver locked in a clear downtrend both technically and fundamentally. He notes persistent selling pressure fueled by a stronger US Dollar and easing geopolitical risks, with momentum indicators confirming a strong negative bias. The analyst believes that the probability of further declines remains high unless resistance at $53.62 is decisively broken. "I am cautious here — unless Silver can reclaim key moving averages, downside risks clearly dominate in the near term."

Earlier, analysts noted that silver was likely to remain under pressure in the near term, with institutional flows and technical factors reinforcing a bearish outlook. Current developments support this view, as continued negative momentum and renewed macro headwinds suggest that downside risk remains elevated and traders should closely monitor for any decisive move outside the $51.08–$55.60 range in the days ahead.

Source of Data: XAG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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