Sugar price forecast: Downside risk persists as sellers maintain control below resistance
Sugar (SB) is trading at USX19.34, rising 1.26% on the day. The price is currently positioned below its key moving averages in the short and medium term, while holding above its long-term trend level.
19.58
19.86
Highlights
- SB/USX trades below short- and medium-term moving averages, with long-term support still intact.
- Bearish momentum dominates with a strong sell signal from MACD, while oscillators show mixed short-term readings.
- Spot price stands at USX19.34, with projected range for next session at USX18.92 to USX19.76 and a 75% likelihood of further declines.
Mixed momentum and sell signals below immediate resistance
On the technical front, SB is trading below the MA-20 (USX19.6) and MA-50 (USX20.08), with long-term support remaining above the MA-200 (USX15.69). The Ichimoku Kijun level at USX19.69 acts as immediate resistance. Momentum indicators are mixed: MACD and ADX both show a strong sell bias, RSI stands at 37.99 (indicative of selling conditions), and Stochastic RSI is overbought, suggesting divergence among oscillators. CCI remains neutral, while Bull/Bear Power indicates sellers dominate intraday. The Awesome Oscillator is neutral, not confirming a strong direction.
Downside favored with range-bound outlook for next session
For the next trading day, SB is expected to fluctuate in the USX18.92 to USX19.76 range, reflecting typical volatility relative to current levels. There is a 25% probability of a continued up move and a 75% probability of a downward move, making further declines more likely. If price breaks above USX19.69, a recovery scenario could develop, whereas a drop below USX18.92 would signal additional downside pressure.
Previously it was reported that sugar futures were experiencing sustained downward momentum with sellers maintaining control. The latest analysis supports this prevailing bearish scenario, with traders advised to closely monitor the USX19.69 resistance for signs of a potential recovery or the USX18.92 level for further downside risk.
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