Gold outlook faces pressure from strong dollar and yields as central-bank buying offers support

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Gold outlook: dollar, yields & support

Highlights

A Reuters survey of 30 analysts shows the median gold forecast for 2026 at $4,495 per ounce, slightly down from $4,509 three months ago, with 2027 rising to $4,650.
Gold peaked at a record $5,595 an ounce in January but now trades near $4,000 as the Iran war strengthens the dollar and Treasury yields, pressuring bullion.
Strong central-bank buying and improving physical demand from India and China are anticipated to underpin gold prices despite recent market headwinds.

Revised forecasts for bullion and silver

As reported by Reuters, a survey of 30 analysts and traders conducted over the past three weeks shows a median gold forecast of $4,495 per troy ounce for 2026, down from $4,509 estimated three months earlier. The 2027 forecast rises to $4,650 from $4,610 in the previous poll.

Gold reaches a record $5,595 an ounce in January before falling to about $4,000 now, as the Iran war pushes oil prices and Treasury yields higher, strengthens the dollar and reduces the appeal of non-yielding bullion for investors. Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper says prices are expected to consolidate and recover in coming months as market focus shifts to de-dollarisation and currency debasement.

Analysts also expect silver to average $66.75 per ounce in 2027, down from this year's forecast of $70.30 but above the current price of $53. The metal's dual role as both a precious and industrial commodity leaves it more exposed than gold to expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates, while weakening photovoltaic demand also weighs on sentiment.

Central-bank demand underpins the market

Bullion is still expected to draw support from robust central-bank buying and physical demand. StoneX analyst Rhona O'Connell says that, barring another major market shock, prices are likely to be underpinned by improving physical demand from India and China.

O'Connell adds that continuing purchases by central banks are sending markets a message about risk management, which matters more than the physical tonnage itself. In silver, she says some fresh investor interest is emerging, but the sharp reversal in ETFs this year leaves the market oversupplied.

Our earlier article on surging U.S. Treasury yields and the widening fiscal deficit explained how borrowing costs above 5% are squeezing households, the housing market, and federal finances as debt-service expenses rise. It also noted that heavy issuance needs and competing demand for capital are keeping funding conditions tight, while political gridlock limits the scope for near-term deficit reduction—factors that can feed through to the dollar, real yields, and investor appetite for assets like gold and silver.

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