Russia western port oil exports forecast to fall in November

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Russia oil exports November

Highlights

Russian seaborne crude exports, including Kazakh oil, are forecast to drop by 0.1–0.2 million barrels per day in November versus October.
Domestic refinery output is rising after October diesel export quota grants and the October 9 U.S.-Russia diesel deal, increasing diesel production post-maintenance.
Black Sea export disruptions, Ukraine attacks on Russian energy sites, and declining Russian oil production are heightening supply risk and causing up to three-week Novorossiysk loading delays.

November export plans tighten supply

As reported by Reuters, preliminary loading plans indicate Russian seaborne crude exports, including Kazakh oil transiting through Russia's pipeline system, may fall by about 0.1 million to 0.2 million barrels per day in November from the previous month, according to two traders.

They say domestic refineries are increasing output after seasonal maintenance, with plants also producing more diesel after Russia and the U.S. agreed a diesel deal on October 9 to help stabilise a global market facing shortages and higher prices linked to Middle East supply disruptions during the Iran war.

Russian refiners have raised processing in the second half of October after the government granted diesel export quotas and the U.S. eased sanctions on Russian fuel exports. Earlier this year, diesel exports had been banned amid domestic fuel shortages.

Black Sea risks and lower output cloud outlook

Traders say November supply plans remain vulnerable to change because attacks by Ukraine on Russian energy sites may alter export availability. They also add that Russia's weaker oil production is not helping refiners raise domestic crude runs quickly.

Although Russia's oil output data is classified, recent OPEC figures show production has declined, and in September Russia lowered its 2026 oil output forecast to a 17-year low.

Ongoing risks in the Black Sea are also limiting exports from Novorossiysk, where traders estimate loading delays of nearly three weeks. At the same time, lower Urals shipments through the Northern Sea Route to Asia are expected as navigation usually ends in November because of worsening weather, adding further pressure to western port export volumes.

In our earlier coverage of the surge in crude oil shipping costs, we explained how conflict-related risks on key tanker routes were driving freight and insurance rates sharply higher and turning transport into a much larger share of the delivered oil price. We also noted that these elevated costs were squeezing importers and refiners—especially in Asia—while benefiting tanker owners, with the impact spilling over into broader fuel and consumer prices.

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