Coffee price prediction: Sellers remain in control with downside pressure persisting

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Coffee slides 2.81% to USX285.5 today

Highlights

KC/USX trades below key moving averages, confirming sustained selling pressure across short, medium, and long-term timeframes.
Momentum and breadth indicators show a pronounced bearish setup, with sellers dominating and the instrument deeply oversold.
Expected 2 to 3 day range is USX279.76 to USX291.24, with a high probability of further downside and limited chances of an upward reversal.

Selling pressure intensifies as technical signals confirm oversold market

KC/USX price is currently trading below the MA-20 at USX294.94, the MA-50 at USX302.98, and the long-term MA-200 at USX298.88. The Ichimoku Kijun at USX296.84 serves as immediate resistance. Both MACD and ADX indicators remain in sell mode, while RSI at 29.15, Stoch RSI, CCI, and Bull/Bear Power all point to strong oversold or bearish conditions. The Awesome Oscillator is also aligned with this downward configuration, reflecting dominant selling pressure and notable volatility in the recent session.

Downside favored as volatility bands signal limited rebound potential

For the next 2–3 days, the expected trading range for KC is projected at USX279.76 to USX291.24, based on the current volatility band relative to present levels. A downward move is highly probable, while a meaningful rebound or upward reversal is considered unlikely barring any unexpected developments. The baseline outlook sees price consolidating within this range; an upside scenario would require breaking above resistance near the Ichimoku Kijun, while the downside case would involve losing support and establishing fresh lows.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees clear technical weakness in coffee, with the price trading below all key moving averages and momentum indicators pointing down. He notes strong selling pressure and a lack of supportive news for the asset. The base scenario remains bearish unless resistance at USX296.84 is reclaimed. "I do not anticipate a rebound here — caution is warranted while KC stays under technical resistance levels."

Previously it was reported that significant investment is being directed toward arabica coffee production infrastructure in the Philippines to enhance productivity and market access. While such long-term developments could eventually influence global supply dynamics, traders should remain attentive to the current technical outlook, with immediate focus on the risk of further declines if support fails within the projected USX279.76 to USX291.24 trading band.

Source of Data: KC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.