Brent crude price forecast: $120.04 resistance as XBR trades flat

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Brent crude up 0.37% to $115.76 today

Highlights

The U.S. Treasury expanded sanctions on Iran's shadow fleet network to disrupt state-backed sanctions evasion in the oil market.
Operation Economic Outcast may restrict Iranian oil supply and introduce near-term uncertainty for Brent export flows.
Brent crude trades in a bullish structure with high volatility, with price seen consolidating between $111.48 to $120.04 and risk of an intraday overbought pullback.

Supply risks grow as new US sanctions target Iran oil flows

The U.S. Treasury has expanded sanctions targeting Iran's shadow fleet network, a move that aims to disrupt state-sponsored sanctions evasion and limit the ability of Iranian oil to reach global markets, according to Mondaq. This action, part of Operation Economic Outcast, could tighten the supply of oil and create near-term uncertainty over export levels. Market participants are monitoring the potential constraints these enhanced measures may place on overall Brent supply lines.

Bullish momentum faces resistance amid mixed oscillator signals

Technically, XBR is trading well above its MA-20 at $114.95 and MA-50 at $114.44 on the H4 chart, with the MA-200 at $95.17 (daily) underscoring a strong uptrend across multiple timeframes. The Ichimoku Kijun support at $113.48 represents the nearest downside threshold. Momentum readings are mixed: while MACD signals Buy, ADX points to a weak trend. RSI prints at 52.06 (Buy), but Stochastic RSI signals risk of an overbought pullback, and CCI reads Neutral. Bull/Bear Power indicates buyer dominance intraday, yet its overbought signal flags stretched conditions, and the Awesome Oscillator remains Neutral. Divergence between persistent bullish momentum and cautious oscillator signals suggests that advancing prices may encounter resistance.

Upward breakout hinges on resistance as short-term range persists

Short-term, Brent crude is expected to consolidate between $111.48 and $120.04, according to typical volatility patterns for upcoming sessions. There is a 73% probability of an upward move, while the risk of a decline sits at 27%. If resistance is breached, a rally toward the upper end of the forecast band is possible. Conversely, a price close below support at $113.48 could trigger corrective pressure within the stated range.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Brent crude supported by robust macro and fundamental drivers. He believes the expanded U.S. Treasury sanctions present a material constraint on supply lines, bolstering the price structure above key averages. Constructive sentiment stands out despite mixed momentum signals, as buyers dominate intraday. Short-term consolidation is likely, but risks are skewed to the upside. "As tighter sanctions reinforce supply risks, I remain confident in Brent’s potential to retest higher levels within the established range."

Previously it was reported that concerns over regional security and potential supply disruptions were supporting higher oil prices. The recent U.S. sanctions targeting Iran’s shadow fleet add a further supply-side risk, making it crucial for traders to watch the $113.48 support level as a trigger for potential corrective movement in Brent crude.

Source of Data: XBR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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