Gold price forecast: $3,818 support in focus as XAU falls 3.54%

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Gold drops 3.54% today to $3,879

Highlights

The European Union banned gold imports from Sudan on July 13, 2026 as part of sanctions linked to Sudan's ongoing conflict.
This ban restricts the flow of Sudanese gold into European markets, tightening supply and potentially disrupting international trade routes.
Gold trades below key moving averages, with negative momentum signals and a projected 79% probability of further downside toward the $3,818 to $3,925 range over the next 2 to 3 days.

Supply disruption intensifies volatility as EU bans Sudanese gold

On July 13, 2026, the European Union imposed a ban on gold imports from Sudan as part of sanction measures related to the ongoing conflict in Sudan, according to Riotimesonline. This regulatory action directly limits the flow of Sudanese gold into European markets, reducing available supply and potentially distorting physical trade routes. Such disruptions can worsen uncertainty across the global gold market, exacerbating volatility for physical and derivative contracts.

Bearish signals deepen as XAU breaches key technical supports

On the H4 timeframe, XAU trades below both the MA-20 and MA-50, and remains well under the long-term MA-200. The Ichimoku Kijun at $3,987 now acts as immediate resistance. Momentum remains bearish, with both the MACD and ADX showing sell signals, while the RSI at 23.82 signals deeply oversold conditions. Stochastic RSI, CCI, and Bull/Bear Power confirm strong seller dominance, with the Awesome Oscillator also aligned to the downside.

High downside risk persists as range-bound trade dominates outlook

Over the next 2–3 trading days, price is expected to move within a volatility band between $3,818 and $3,925. Model probabilities assign a 79% likelihood to a further decline and 21% to an upside move in this window. The baseline scenario projects a consolidation within this range. A break above $3,987 would open a bullish scenario, while a close below $3,818 would suggest renewed momentum to the downside.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, highlights that the EU's gold ban from Sudan adds to global market uncertainty and physical supply risk. He believes the confluence of regulatory disruptions and technical weakness increases volatility, but sees opportunities as sentiment stabilizes. Karapetjanc notes that deeply oversold momentum and a tight trading band could enable tactical consolidation or a reversal if resistance is reclaimed. "I remain constructive on gold here — with stabilization above $3,818 and a break of $3,987 opening scope for a short-term rebound despite adverse headline flows."

Earlier, analysts noted that gold was experiencing persistent downside momentum driven by bearish technical signals and macroeconomic pressures, with central bank buying offering limited support. The latest developments around EU import sanctions on Sudanese gold further complicate the market outlook, making the $3,818 level a critical downside risk that traders should closely monitor in the days ahead.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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