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Asian rice prices hit two-year high as El Niño threatens food inflation

Asian rice prices hit two-year high as El Niño threatens food inflation
Rice prices surge on El Niño

Dryer weather across key Asian growing areas is lifting rice prices as the region moves through the harvest season. The increase pushes a benchmark Asian rice price to its highest level in almost two years and adds to inflation risks as output is expected to fall this season.

Highlights

  • Asian benchmark rice prices surged to a two-year high as El Niño-induced dry weather disrupts harvests in key producing countries including India.
  • The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects global rice production will decline this season for the first time in over a decade, tightening supply outlook.
  • Rising rice prices risk accelerating food inflation across Asia, complicating central bank and government efforts to manage price stability in staple-dependent economies.

Harvest pressure and supply outlook

As reported by Bloomberg, rice markets across Asia are tightening as El Niño disrupts production of the staple grain during a critical harvest period.

Farmers across much of Asia are in the midst of harvesting, but drier-than-usual weather is proving a hurdle for crops in producing countries including India, the world's leading exporter. The weather pattern is raising concern that reduced supplies could keep prices elevated across regional and global markets.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts that global rice production will decline this season for the first time in more than a decade. That outlook underscores how weather-related disruptions in major exporting countries can quickly feed through to benchmark prices.

Inflation risks across Asia

Higher rice prices threaten to accelerate food inflation in economies where the grain is a household staple and a politically sensitive item. Any sustained increase in costs can strain consumers and complicate efforts by governments and central banks to contain broader price pressures.

The latest move in benchmark prices also highlights the exposure of Asian food supply chains to adverse weather patterns. With India and other major growers facing crop challenges, markets are watching whether tighter production will deepen pressure on import-dependent countries in the region.

Our earlier article on Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption highlighted how delays and higher transport costs are already reducing fertilizer use and altering planting decisions, weighing on farm output and lifting supply chain expenses. We also noted that agricultural commodity prices had risen sharply and that prolonged disruption could intensify food security risks in Asia and Africa through higher input costs and tighter supplies.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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