Gold price prediction: Upward move holds as buyers dominate amid resistance at $4,175

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Gold jumps 1.8% to $4,131 today

Highlights

US bond yields and the US Dollar came under pressure following Democratic wins in both chambers of Congress, lifting gold demand as a defensive asset.
Central banks bought 321 tonnes of gold in Q3 2026 for a 675 tonne year-to-date total, and global gold ETF holdings set a record at 4,256 tonnes.
Short- and medium-term technicals indicate strong upward momentum for gold, with price expected between $4,086 and $4,175 over the next two to three trading days amid low downside risk.

Robust gold demand as US politics and central banks drive flows

Democratic victories in both the House and Senate in the United States have pressured US bond yields and the US Dollar, creating a favorable setup for gold demand as a defensive asset, according to FXStreet. Complementing this, central banks acquired 321 tonnes of gold in the third quarter of 2026, bringing year-to-date demand to 675 tonnes and highlighting continued official sector purchasing. Additionally, global gold ETF holdings set a record at 4,256 tonnes in the same period, further affirming robust demand dynamics across institutional and retail channels.

Mixed momentum signals as price tests technical boundaries

On an hourly basis, XAU trades above its MA-20 and MA-50, while it remains below the MA-200 on the daily chart. Immediate support is marked by the Ichimoku Kijun at $4,080. MACD shows strong buy momentum, and ADX indicates prevailing strength for the bulls. However, RSI is overbought, while Stochastic RSI is in oversold territory and CCI is neutral—this mixed oscillator profile points to a divergence in short-term momentum signals. Bull/Bear Power stays positive, reflecting ongoing buyer dominance amid moderate volatility and a modest negative gap from the previous close.

Upside bias sustains as narrow range signals contained risk

Looking ahead, gold's price is expected to fluctuate between $4,086 and $4,175 over the next 2–3 trading days, with a very high probability of continuation to the upside and low downside risk. If the price consolidates within this band, conditions may be regarded as neutral. A break above resistance would favor further gains, while a drop below immediate support at $4,080 would suggest initiation of a bearish scenario.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, cautions that gold’s push higher is supported by persistent official sector buying and ETF inflows, but underlying risks remain. He sees the short-term technical picture as bullish, yet mixed oscillator signals and the asset trading below its long-term average temper optimism. Base case is continued range trading between $4,086 and $4,175, with upside favored only if resistance is breached. "Until gold decisively clears $4,175, I remain defensive and see any failure at support as a cue for downside risk."

Earlier, analysts noted that gold was rebounding as softer U.S. dollar and Treasury yields improved the outlook for the precious metal amid political shifts in Washington. The current analysis strengthens that view by highlighting substantial central bank buying and record ETF inflows, with market focus now on a potential breakout above $4,175 as the key upside risk.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.