WTI rebounds from $87.50 as Middle East risks challenge bearish sentiment

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Anton Kharitonov

05.11.2026

WTI rebounds from $87.50 as Middle East risks challenge bearish sentiment — WTI bulls challenge the bearish outlook

WTI is trading around $90.50–90.60 per barrel on November 5, attempting to recover after a sharp plunge to $87.40–87.60. The decline continued a massive selloff that began after a failed attempt to consolidate above October highs of $105–106.

Over several trading sessions, prices lost almost $19, with the most intense wave of selling accompanied by breaks below successive support levels at $100, $97, and $92. Today, buyers managed to push prices back above $89–90, but the technical picture remains predominantly bearish: prices are trading significantly below the major moving averages, while previous recovery attempts ended with the formation of lower highs.

U.S. election results reduce the geopolitical risk premium

The main factor weighing on the oil market remains the sharp reduction in the geopolitical risk premium following the U.S. midterm congressional elections. The Democratic victory strengthened expectations that the Donald Trump administration would face additional political constraints when making decisions about continuing military operations against Iran.

Against this backdrop, investors have increasingly priced in the possibility of a diplomatic settlement and a gradual recovery in oil supplies from the Persian Gulf. The situation in the Middle East remains the main source of uncertainty for the global oil market.

Diplomatic prospects contrast with persistent supply disruptions

According to Reuters reports on November 5, investors continue to assess the likelihood of increased diplomatic pressure on Washington to end the conflict with Iran, as the new political balance in Congress could limit the scope for further military escalation.

Additional expectations center on the prospect of a recovery in exports from Middle Eastern producers and a gradual normalization of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. However, market expectations are increasingly diverging from actual physical supply conditions: a significant portion of the region's export infrastructure continues to operate under restrictions, while the risks of tanker attacks and damage to energy facilities persist.

Bulls target $93–95 as $91 resistance holds

Thus, although WTI's recovery is currently limited by resistance around $91, the local lows near $87.50 could mark the "bottom" of the current decline. As there are still no objective reasons to believe that military operations in the Middle East have ended, bulls may attempt to push prices higher toward $93–95, but a decisive break above the current resistance, as I warned in WTI tests $94 support as U.S.-Iran diplomacy fuels further selling, is required.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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