Oil prices fall amid fears of renewed U.S.-Iran conflict
Global oil prices declined on Friday, November 6, reversing gains recorded earlier in the session. Investors are assessing the likelihood of renewed military action between the U.S. and Iran following the congressional midterm elections, while also hoping for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict.
According to CNBC, Brent crude futures fell 1.4% to $97 per barrel, although prices had approached $100 earlier in the session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures dropped 1.5% to $89 per barrel.
Oil prices have declined significantly since the beginning of the week. On Monday, Brent was trading above $110 per barrel, while WTI exceeded $100.
Bob McNally, founder and president of Rapidan Energy Group, estimates an 80% probability of renewed military hostilities between the U.S. and Iran. He predicts that another escalation could push both oil benchmarks above $100 per barrel.
The expert believes that disagreements over Iran's nuclear program remain the main obstacle to resolving the conflict. U.S. President Donald Trump is determined to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons, while Iranian authorities are unwilling to abandon their nuclear capabilities.
A ceasefire remains possible
At the same time, signs of a potential diplomatic breakthrough have emerged. According to Reuters, Iran has submitted a new nuclear proposal to Washington through Qatar. A senior Iranian official said the U.S. administration is already reviewing the document.
Attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant share of global oil supplies passes, are creating additional uncertainty. On Thursday, Iran reported three more attacks on vessels. Data from the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) indicates that the frequency of such incidents remains close to record levels.
Concerns about further escalation are shared by other analysts, including Lombard Odier chief economist Samy Chaar and the company's head of investment strategy, Luca Bindelli.
As a result, the oil market is caught between two opposing scenarios. Renewed military hostilities could disrupt supplies and trigger another price surge, while progress in negotiations between Washington and Tehran could put further downward pressure on oil prices.
Iran war hurts Republicans
In the November 3 U.S. midterm elections, the Democratic Party secured a decisive victory, gaining control of both chambers of Congress. One of the main reasons for the Republicans' defeat was growing public dissatisfaction with the prolonged war against Iran, which began in February 2026. The military conflict led to a sharp increase in gasoline prices and the cost of other goods, putting additional pressure on household budgets. Democrats capitalized on voter frustration and won races even in traditionally Republican states.
U.S. President Donald Trump acknowledged that the war with Iran was one of the factors behind his party's defeat but said he did not regret launching the military operation. According to Trump, Washington's actions were necessary to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Democrats now intend to strengthen oversight of the Trump administration's policies, potentially complicating the continuation of the conflict.
As a reminder, oil prices had previously returned to growth.
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