France raises wine output forecast as 2026 harvest stays historically weak

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France ups wine forecast

Highlights

France's farm ministry raised the 2026 national wine production forecast to 36.7 million hectoliters from October’s 34.9 million, citing improved regional yields.
Higher-than-expected output from Languedoc-Roussillon and Charentes drove the revision, but national production remains 10% below the 2021-2025 average.
Champagne output is expected to fall 38% from 2025, Burgundy-Beaujolais by 22%, while Languedoc-Roussillon is set to rise 25% following late-summer rainfall.

Revised forecast reflects stronger regional yields

As reported by BusinessWorld, citing France's farm ministry, national wine production is now forecast at 36.7 million hectoliters, up from an October estimate of 34.9 million hectoliters.

The ministry says the upward revision is mainly driven by higher-than-expected yields in Languedoc-Roussillon and Charentes, which together account for about half of France's output, as well as improved expectations for Champagne and the South-East. The latest monthly report says production would stand above last year's harvest, the poorest of this century, though still 10% below the 2021-2025 average.

Agreste, the ministry's statistics service, says the 2026 crop is affected by a reduction in vineyard area under a vineyard reduction plan, while summer heat and drought are hurting yields, especially in northern wine regions. France remains the world's second-largest wine producer after Italy.

Regional gaps highlight pressure on supply

Champagne production is still expected to fall 38% from 2025 despite this month's higher forecast, after frost, hail, drought and summer heatwaves hit the region. The number of Champagne bottles eventually released to the market each year is set by the industry lobby, which takes into account regional output and factors including global demand.

Burgundy-Beaujolais output is forecast to decline 22% from last year, while Loire production is seen down 7%. By contrast, Languedoc-Roussillon output is expected to rise 25% from last year's very weak harvest after late-summer rains limited drought damage, compared with a 2% increase projected by the ministry last month.

Bordeaux production is forecast to increase 10% from 2025, though it remains 11% below the five-year average, partly because of vineyard removals. A hectoliter equals 100 liters, or about 133 standard wine bottles.

France’s budget deficit and rising government borrowing costs have been a key focus in our earlier coverage, as political uncertainty and market skepticism pushed French OAT yields to multi-decade highs. We noted that officials argued fiscal consolidation toward a 3% deficit target by 2029 remains achievable without austerity, but that investor confidence hinges on credible budget approval and follow-through.

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