Mexico retail sales rebound in August as HR Ratings sees moderate consumption ahead

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Mexico retail sales rebound August

Highlights

Mexico's seasonally adjusted retail revenue rose 1.2% month on month in August, rebounding from declines earlier in the summer and delivering 3.2% annual growth.
Vehicle and auto parts sales climbed 1.4% monthly in August, supported by stronger consumer bank lending, including 9.3% annualized growth in credit cards and 5.1% in payroll loans.
HR Ratings forecasts moderate Mexican consumption for the remainder of 2026 due to rising inflation and weak job creation, despite 3.3% annual real wage growth and supportive bank financing.

August rebound lifts retail activity

As reported by HR Ratings, seasonally adjusted revenue at retail companies increases 1.2% month on month in August, recovering from changes of minus 0.3% in June and 0.0% in July. On an annual basis, revenue expands 3.2%, marking a recovery in consumption after the erosion seen from May to July.

The improvement is broad-based, with household goods the only segment posting a monthly decline, down 0.3%. Vehicle and auto parts sales rise 1.4% after two months of contractions, a move HR Ratings links to stronger consumer bank lending in August, including annualized quarterly growth of 9.3% in credit cards and 5.1% in payroll loans.

Department stores and self-service chains also recover, with sales up 1.1% month on month compared with a 0.5% decline in the previous month. HR Ratings attributes that gain to back-to-school purchases of clothing and footwear, while sales through internet, television and catalog channels jump 21.7%, although that appears to mirror a similarly sized fall in the prior month.

Employment and inflation risks temper outlook

Total employment in the sector rises 0.2% month on month, extending gains to a second straight month after five months of declines. Even so, IMSS reports the creation of just 12,900 jobs in commerce during January to August 2026, below the 60,700 and 41,600 recorded in the same periods of 2024 and 2025.

Average remuneration falls 0.8% on the month, while goods purchased for resale increase 2.4%. On an annual basis, total employment grows 0.9%, the strongest expansion since January, average remuneration rises 5.2%, and goods bought for resale advance 3.4%.

HR Ratings says real average IMSS wages rise 3.3% year on year in August and outstanding commercial bank financing remains supportive, with real growth of 7.8% at the end of the month. Still, it expects consumption to stay moderate in the rest of 2026 as inflation pressures pick up, limiting household confidence and the Mexican economy's growth capacity.

In our earlier article on Moody’s upgraded global growth outlook, we noted that strengthening household demand and a stabilizing labor market were supporting a more optimistic view of the economy. At the same time, the report warned that persistent inflation and supply-chain disruptions could still weigh on growth momentum across regions and sectors.

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