Bitcoin price prediction: BTC stalls at Fibonacci 50% midpoint as long positioning wanes

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Bitcoin price prediction

Highlights

Bitcoin stalls at $94,000 midpoint after 16.7% rebound as market participation slows.
Volume and open interest stabilisation show buyers pausing before committing above resistance.
Support at $92,300 keeps bias positive while traders await fresh volume for breakout.

Today is Thursday, November 4, and the narrow intraday range reflects how the early December recovery has paused at the key Fibonacci midpoint of the most recent daily bearish swing. The controlling swing on the daily chart stretches from $107,500 to a low at $80,500, where the Fibonacci 50% retracement sits at $94,000. The midpoint has now capped upside for two sessions and explains the tight behaviour seen so far today.

Bitcoin spent the final week of November climbing through what technically qualifies as a bullish retracement within the broader bearish range. That retracement reached the Fibonacci 50% level yesterday, marking a 16.7% recovery from the November low. Yesterday also produced a second consecutive bullish daily close that lifted Bitcoin above the $94,000 midpoint and shifted both the week-to-date and month-to-date readings into positive territory. The move pushed price clearly above the 20-day EMA at $92,300, which reinforces the improving trend structure.

Bitcoin price dynamics (Oct - Dec 2025). Source: Tradingview

Trend conditions have strengthened further on the four-hour chart, where the 20 EMA has crossed above the 100 EMA at $91,000 for the first time since October. That crossover is an early sign that the trend could begin to shift toward a sustained bullish phase. This improvement has been reflected in sentiment indicators. The daily RSI has climbed from bearish territory into a neutral zone. And also, the global Bitcoin fear and greed index has also improved sharply as negative sentiment eased from an extreme fear reading of 11 last week to 28 today.

Open interest stabilises, but funding rates stay positive, signalling long-biased positioning

This week’s recovery was supported by rising open interest through the early phase of the climb, although yesterday’s gains did not attract additional positioning. Volume on the hourly chart has declined since Bitcoin reached the Fibonacci midpoint, which signals weaker participation at the highs. The long-to-short ratio stayed sideways between 1.6 and 1.7 throughout yesterday, and both aggregated funding and predicted funding are above zero at +0.0039 and +0.0028. Positive funding shows that long traders are paying shorts and reveals that positioning is now mostly long-biased. The shift in sentiment aligns with the improving recovery, but the lack of volume expansion near the midpoint reduces conviction in the immediate move.

Taken together, open interest stabilisation, declining volume at resistance, and positive funding explain today’s intraday consolidation. Buyers have not added new positions at the Fibonacci midpoint, and those already in longs are paying to keep positions open. This creates a pause while the market waits for stronger participation. A break above $94,200 will require fresh volume and renewed long interest, which would confirm a continuation of the December recovery. Failure to attract that participation could produce a short-term pullback toward the 20-day EMA at $92,300 before buyers attempt another move at the midpoint.

In recent analysis, we discussed how Bitcoin recorded its second straight day of gains as buyers regained short-term control. Declining volumes warned traders even as EMA crossovers confirmed a shift toward a bullish bias.

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