XRP ETF approval odds shift as SEC formally acknowledges Bitwise filing
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has formally acknowledged the receipt of Bitwise’s application for a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF), a move that has ignited both optimism and skepticism within the cryptocurrency industry.
Bitwise initially filed for the product in October, and its acknowledgment follows similar filings from Grayscale and 21Shares last week, according to the Cryptopolitan.
While this does not indicate a guaranteed approval, it is seen as a significant step toward bringing XRP-based financial products to mainstream markets.
Market Reaction and Regulatory Uncertainty
Despite the regulatory progress, XRP’s price has yet to react positively. As of this writing, the digital asset is down 3.8%, trading at $2.52. Broader market conditions, including Bitcoin’s dip below $95,000, appear to be weighing on sentiment.
The odds of the SEC approving an XRP ETF by July 31, 2025, have dropped by 8% to 45% on crypto-betting platform Polymarket. However, following the SEC’s acknowledgment, the chances of a Ripple-backed ETF being approved have surged to 80% on the same platform.
Investor Jason Calacanis has been among the most vocal critics, arguing that XRP is a “centrally controlled security” and warning that its approval could disrupt financial markets. Ripple executives, however, maintain that the XRP Ledger is decentralized and operates similarly to commodities like gold and oil.
The SEC’s final decision remains uncertain, and while the acknowledgment marks progress, approval is far from guaranteed. The outcome will likely have a profound impact on both regulatory precedent and the broader digital asset market.
Legal experts predict the Ripple vs. SEC litigation could conclude by mid-2025. Ripple attorney Jeremy Hogan suggests a settlement or dismissal is likely by April or May 2025.
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