Bitcoin price prediction: BTC breaks down to 2-week low as institutional selling crushes demand
Bitcoin price's fragile gain on Monday was short-lived after strong resistance at $90,000 gave way to a strong bearish reversal. The early gains during the Asian session merely retested the broken ascending triangle pattern, where the former support trendline aligned with the 4-hour 20 EMA to cap upside attempts. That confluence at $90,000 triggered renewed sell pressure, which pushed Bitcoin down by over 5% to a two-week low at $85,000 by the end of the day.
Highlights
- BTC crashes to two-week low as failed retest sparks 5% bearish drop
- Whales sell $2.78 billion while retail only buys $474 million worth of Bitcoin
- Bybit funding rate drops negative as short sellers pressure leveraged long positions heavily
The volume profile of the decline stood out. Monday’s selloff came on higher daily traded volume than the previous five sessions. Over $527 million in bullish leveraged positions were liquidated as a result. This reintroduced fear over overleveraged exposure, especially as futures open interest sits near $135 billion. On Bybit, short sellers grew aggressive, pushing annualized funding rates below zero. That anomaly, where longs are being paid to hold positions, is often interpreted as an extreme bearish sentiment.
Bitcoin price dynamics (Dec 2025). Source: Tradingview
While retail traders attempted to buy the dip, their efforts were absorbed by whales exiting at scale. Data showed retail and mid-sized wallets accumulating $474 million in buy-side volume. However, this paled in comparison to $2.78 billion worth of Bitcoin sold by whales. That imbalance reveals how institutional selling overwhelmed retail enthusiasm, extending the downtrend rather than offering price support.
Bitcoin risk breakdown exposure to $84,000 as next downside target
Today is Tuesday, December 16. Bitcoin price has been consolidating between $85,000 and $86,500 since late Monday. That narrow range is paired with declining volumes, highlighting indecision from traders after the earlier shakeout. The 4-hour RSI continues to hover near oversold territory while the daily RSI prints a bearish 36 level, showing that downside momentum still dominates across timeframes.
On the 1-hour chart, price action is being capped by the 20 EMA at the top of the current intraday range. Bitcoin also trades below the 50 and 100 EMAs on lower timeframes, adding pressure to short-term direction. The failure to reclaim any of those moving averages suggests that buyers are yet to regain control.
Unless there is a strong reversal trigger, Bitcoin appears set for another leg lower. A breakdown from the current tight range could open the door for a move toward $84,000, which marks a potential three-week low.
In recent analysis, we discussed how Bitcoin’s recovery attempt stalled near the $90,000 resistance after breaking below the triangle structure. Bank of Japan rate hike sentiment increased deleveraging risks and deepened downside pressure on BTC.
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