Solana price prediction: SOL recovers despite BOJ hike but signals defensive sentiment

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Sholanke Dele

19.12.2025

Solana price prediction: SOL recovers despite BOJ hike but signals defensive sentiment — Solana rebounds 4%

Solana price [SOLUSD] is trading near $124.5 in Friday’s European session, recovering about 4% from Thursday’s close at $119.5. The early gains today follow an aggressive decline in the previous session when Solana dropped to an eight-month low of $117. That drop came shortly after the release of the U.S. CPI data, which showed inflation slowing more than expected. Headline CPI for November came in at 2.7% year over year, below the 3.1% forecast, while core CPI printed at 2.6%.

Highlights

Solana rebounds 4% after CPI-induced selloff, but leverage metrics show weak support.
SOL price tests 20 EMA as rising RSI attempts to break bearish setup.
Flat open interest and falling volume cast doubt based on Solana's current recovery.

The inflation figures supported expectations for a shift toward easier Federal Reserve policy. That scenario typically favors risk assets like cryptocurrencies. In fact, Solana initially jumped to $129 within minutes of the CPI release as traders anticipated a dovish reaction. But after an hour, the price sharply reversed by over 9%, falling back to $117. The move triggered more than $9 million in long liquidations, exposing fragility in sentiment and a lack of sustained buying interest.

Solana price chart (Dec 2025). Source: Tradingview

Solana’s rebound today has come despite the Bank of Japan’s decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points from 0.5 to 0.75, marking their highest level since 1995. The BoJ expects inflation to gradually move toward its 2% target over time, even as it maintains an overall loose monetary stance. Markets had broadly anticipated that the rate hike would trigger global unwinds of carry trades, tighten liquidity, and weigh on risk assets like cryptocurrencies. That expectation contributed to the bearish sentiment seen throughout the week. However, in today’s session, Solana, Bitcoin, and other crypto assets have taken a surprisingly bullish turn.

SOL RSI rises, but open interest is flat as the rebound struggles for validation

The intraday rebound may have been influenced by renewed optimism among influential voices in the crypto space. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, argued that the BoJ hike could actually support Bitcoin in the longer term, suggesting the structural change in global monetary flows might eventually drive liquidity into digital assets.

Despite today’s recovery, key indicators do not confirm a strong bullish foundation. Solana open interest has remained flat, showing no meaningful increase in leveraged buying. The long-to-short ratio has also diverged from price action, suggesting traders are still positioned defensively. Volume analysis on the four-hour chart shows a steady decline throughout the rebound from yesterday’s low.

Technically, Solana is now testing the 20 EMA on the four-hour chart. RSI on the same chart is still in bearish territory but is rising sharply toward neutral. A clean breakout above the 20 EMA could push RSI into bullish territory and validate today’s bounce as the start of a more sustained recovery. Until then, the current price action may be interpreted as a technical retracement rather than a broader trend reversal.

In recent analysis, we discussed how Solana slipped 0.03% to $122.73, trading sideways below key moving averages. Persistent downside pressure kept SOL beneath the MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200 levels.

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