Solana price prediction: SOL breaks below 5-day range amid open interest support

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Solana price breaks consolidation

Highlights

Solana price confirms bearish breakout below $123.5, $117 becomes next key liquidity target
Open interest increase signals fresh short entries as Solana resumes broader December downtrend
Long-to-short ratio surge to 4.9 exposes bulls to potential liquidation

Within the context of that downtrend, Solana had previously set a lower high at $128.9 and a lower low at $117. The short-lived consolidation between $128 and $123.5 was positioned directly beneath the last swing high, suggesting bulls had tried to reclaim control and break market structure. However, price failed to break and hold above $128.9.

Solana price chart (Dec 2025). Source: Tradingview

Instead, on Tuesday, Solana’s attempt to break below the consolidation failed, as Solana reversed intraday and closed back inside the range. But today’s confirmed breakout below the $123.5 boundary marks a clean exit from the five-day consolidation, suggesting that market makers have completed short-side accumulation and are now distributing into the breakdown. The move aligns Solana back into the broader December downtrend.

SOL positioning data suggests sellers are in control and reinforces the EMA resistance

The next draw on sell-side liquidity lies at the previous swing low of $117, which was printed last week and forms the next logical downside objective if price fails to recover. Although today’s breakdown lacked a strong volume spike, it has been accompanied by a rise in open interest, indicating that fresh positions are being added rather than unwound. This suggests directional conviction behind the bearish breakout.

In parallel, the long-to-short ratio has risen sharply from 3.6 to 4.9 since Monday. This rise reflects growing long exposure during a bearish continuation, a setup that typically exposes the market to long liquidation risk if price fails to reverse. This positioning data supports the idea that sellers still hold the advantage unless a structural break to the upside emerges.

Any bullish retracement from current levels may face resistance at the 20 and 50 EMA zones on the 4-hour chart, which have consistently rejected upward moves since last week. Unless price can break above those levels, bulls may struggle to reclaim momentum as the market targets the $117 liquidity pool.

We discussed how Solana hovered in a four-day range between $123.4 and $128.5 during thin trading. Spot outflows and stable funding rates supported a bullish breakout without excessive leverage.

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