Toncoin rises 3.09% as buyers drive price toward $1.90 resistance

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Toncoin gains 3.09% today to $1.874

Highlights

Toncoin has seen increased accumulation by smaller holders while larger addresses with 1,000 or more TON have reduced their positions.
Market uncertainty continues to dampen Toncoin's broader momentum, with recent pullbacks and no clear signs of strong growth ahead.
Anthony Scaramucci listed Toncoin among his top cryptocurrency picks for 2026, signaling growing interest from notable investors.

Smaller holders accumulate as market uncertainty weakens broader momentum

Toncoin has recently seen increased activity from smaller holders, as larger addresses holding 1,000 or more TON have reduced their positions. Market uncertainty continues to impact broader momentum, with prior pullbacks affecting trends and no clear direction for strong growth. Notably, Anthony Scaramucci has highlighted Toncoin among his top crypto picks for 2026.

Upward momentum tests overbought limits as intraday buying persists

Momentum indicators on the daily chart are firmly bullish: both MACD and ADX signal strengthening upward momentum, while the RSI at 69.5 nears overbought territory, echoing the Stochastic RSI and CCI which confirm overbought conditions. BBP remains positive, showing buyers dominate today’s intraday activity; the Awesome Oscillator is also aligned with the upward trend. Toncoin opened slightly higher than its previous close with no notable gap, has advanced 3.09% intraday, and is now trading near the top of today’s range ($1.845 – $1.875). Volatility is moderate, and the tone remains strong as buyers push toward session highs; some divergence is noted between the robust daily momentum and weekly oscillators, hinting at possible short-term exhaustion.

Sideways bias favored as upside probability remains limited

For the next five trading days, Toncoin is expected to fluctuate between $1.85 and $1.88, reflecting recent price action and typical weekly volatility. The probability of an upward move is very low (less than 20%), making downside risk more likely. The baseline scenario points to sideways movement within the current channel as bullish intraday signals are tempered by weak weekly indicators. A bullish scenario could play out if the price pierces the $1.88 – $1.90 resistance on strong momentum, while a bearish scenario unfolds if support at $1.85 is broken, exposing further downside.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, senior analyst at Traders Union, sees Toncoin’s recent momentum as constructive but tempered by market uncertainty and shifting holder dynamics. He believes the asset’s structure remains bullish above key support levels, though upside is limited by macro hesitation and moderate volatility. Karapetjanc notes sentiment is resilient, bolstered by positive mention from prominent investors, but expects a period of sideways consolidation. "Momentum is present, but I want to see a strong move above $1.90 for confirmation of a renewed uptrend," he says.

Last time, analysts noted that Toncoin is trading with strong short- and medium-term momentum above key moving averages, while remaining below its longer-term MA-200, indicating a bearish long-term trend. Overbought signals on RSI, CCI, and Stoch RSI raise the risk of a near-term pullback or consolidation, despite firm buyer dominance and positive momentum indicators.

Source of Data: TON Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.