Mild gains for Toncoin — upbeat momentum faces looming resistance near $1.90

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Toncoin rises 0.19% to $1.881 today

Highlights

Telegram has reportedly sold over $450 million worth of Toncoin in 2025, according to the Financial Times.
The large-scale sale by Telegram has triggered concerns in the Toncoin community regarding potential impacts on token price and stability.
Ongoing Telegram-linked developments continue to influence Toncoin’s market outlook amid heightened scrutiny following the reported sale.

Community concerns rise as large Telegram Toncoin sale rattles sentiment

Telegram has reportedly sold over $450 million worth of Toncoin in 2025, according to a Financial Times report. This corporate action has raised concerns within the Toncoin community about its influence on the token's price and stability. Ongoing Telegram-linked developments continue to shape Toncoin’s market outlook.

Short-term overbought risks emerge amid strong technical support

Technical indicators remain bullish for TON, as daily momentum is positive: the MACD and ADX both support an upward bias. The asset trades just above the day’s range high with low intraday volatility, maintaining strength toward session highs. Dynamic support is at the Ichimoku Kijun ($1.683), with resistance nearby at the MA-50 ($1.605) and a psychological hurdle at $1.90. However, overbought signals are flashing with RSI at 68, Stochastic RSI at 88, and CCI above 116, while Bull/Bear Power and the Awesome Oscillator reinforce buyer dominance, suggesting short-term exhaustion could lead to a pullback.

Mild pullback expected as momentum fades near price ceiling

For the next five trading days, TON is expected to consolidate within a typical volatility band of $1.90 to $1.97, keeping current levels central. Momentum indicators leave less than a 20% probability of further upside, favoring a mild pullback in the short term. If the price breaks above $1.97, further gains are possible, while a drop below $1.90 could trigger acceleration toward the Ichimoku Kijun support area.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, believes Toncoin’s current momentum is positive, but he sees persistent longer-term resistance and profit-taking risks. He points out that large Telegram sales have shaken confidence and could limit any strong rally. Technical signals warn of short-term exhaustion and a likely consolidation or mild pullback. "Base case remains a ranging market between $1.90 and $1.97 — I stay cautious unless we see a confirmed break above $1.97."

Previously it was reported that Toncoin remains in a bullish short- and medium-term trend, trading above key moving averages but below the long-term MA-200, with ongoing integration into Telegram’s ecosystem supporting positive momentum. However, overbought oscillators and moderate volatility increase the risk of a bearish correction if support at $1.684 is breached, as technical momentum indicators suggest waning upside potential near resistance.

Source of Data: TON Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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