AVAX weekly review: RSI, MACD, and CCI remain bearish as price holds near weekly lows

Traders Union
All News
Crypto
Avalanche slips 0.34% this week

Highlights

Avalanche saw institutional momentum as Grayscale, VanEck, and Bitwise filed spot AVAX ETF applications, proposing up to 70% asset staking and distributor rewards for ETF holders.
Network activity set record highs, surpassing 10 billion lifetime transactions and pushing total value locked above $1.2 billion amid DeFi and real-world asset tokenization growth.
The Avalanche Foundation executed a $40 million share buyback, launched an institutional treasury dashboard, secured $1 billion via U.S. Treasuries, and expanded partnerships with FIS Global and a leading Thai bank.

ETF filings and record network activity drive institutional interest this week

Institutional momentum on Avalanche increased as Grayscale, VanEck, and Bitwise advanced spot AVAX ETF filings with the SEC, introducing new structures that allow up to 70% of assets to be staked and rewards to be distributed to ETF holders. Network activity achieved record highs, surpassing 10 billion lifetime transactions, with total value locked moving above $1.2 billion alongside growth in DeFi and real-world asset tokenization. Additional developments include a $40 million share buyback, the launch of an institutional treasury dashboard, and expanded partnerships with FIS Global and a leading Thai bank. The Avalanche Foundation also secured $1 billion through U.S. Treasuries to bolster long-term holdings.

Oversold signals persist as indicators reinforce weekly bearish pressure

Weekly technical indicators for AVAX underscore continued weakness: the asset is well below the W1 MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200, with the Ichimoku Kijun ($22.34) acting as added resistance. The RSI and CCI remain in bearish territory, suggesting mild oversold conditions with no strong reversal signs; MACD and ADX reinforce a bearish structure. Awesome Oscillator and Stochastic RSI are neutral to weak, and Bollinger Band Percentile signals sellers retained control, while price action stayed close to weekly lows ($13.60) under moderate volatility — support is seen at $13.80, resistance at $14.30.

Sideways range expected as breakout risk hinges on resistance and support

Looking forward, AVAX is expected to trade between $13.80 and $14.30 over the next week, with a probability of a sustained price rise below 20% based on prevailing technicals. The baseline expectation is continued sideways movement, capped by $14.30 overhead resistance and supported at $13.80. A decisive break above resistance could enable a test of prior weekly highs, while a drop below support would leave AVAX vulnerable to fresh lows and increased selling pressure.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, senior analyst at Traders Union, highlights that Avalanche (AVAX) faced selling pressure this week but saw significant institutional momentum and strategic developments. He sees encouraging signs from sizable ETF filings, record on-chain activity, and capital expansion — all pointing to robust underlying demand. While weekly charts remain capped by resistance and the technical trend is bearish, Karapetjanc notes that growing adoption and fresh inflows could spark a sharp reversal if resistance at $14.30 is cleared. He expects AVAX to oscillate between $13.80 and $14.30 in the coming week but maintains a positive bias given the macro and fundamental tailwinds. "Strong fundamentals are building a solid runway — any break above $14.30 could fuel renewed upside for AVAX," Karapetjanc says.

Previously, it was noted that AVAX encountered resistance and retreated back into its short-term EMA cluster, indicating a weakening near-term technical structure. The article highlighted that holding above $13.80 keeps the short-term base intact and that AVAX is likely to trade sideways with a slight bearish bias unless key levels are reclaimed.

Source of Data: AVAX Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.