Cardano price prediction: Downtrend persists amid sideways trade? ADA drops 1.66%

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Cardano slides 1.66% today to $0.391

Highlights

Cardano completed the Ouroboros Linear Leios upgrade, targeting improved network scalability and efficiency for its blockchain infrastructure.
Cardano futures open interest surged to $817 million as speculation mounted about a potential Grayscale Cardano spot ETF decision expected in early 2026.
Charles Hoskinson announced a 2026 agenda for Cardano, focusing on expanded DeFi integration, new cross-chain bridges, enhanced stablecoin support, and ongoing navigation of U.S. regulatory uncertainty.

Open interest surges amid ETF speculation and continued regulatory uncertainty

Cardano completed the Ouroboros Linear Leios upgrade to improve network scalability and efficiency. The futures market saw open interest surge to $817 million amid speculation around a possible Grayscale Cardano spot ETF decision expected in early 2026. Founder Charles Hoskinson outlined a 2026 agenda to enhance DeFi integration, introduce new cross-chain bridges, and expand stablecoin support, while ongoing U.S. regulatory uncertainty continues to affect broader adoption.

Bearish momentum persists as mixed signals and volatility drive uncertainty

The closest dynamic support is offered by the Ichimoku Kijun near $0.383, while the MA-50 serves as the nearest resistance. Momentum signals are mixed: the MACD and ADX indicate weak, fading momentum with a bearish bias. The RSI is just below neutral at 49, while the Stochastic RSI and Commodity Channel Index are broadly neutral, with some short-term timeframes showing oversold or overbought conditions. Bull/Bear Power signals a slight buyer dominance intraday, but daily action shows ADA slipping 1.66% from the previous close and trading mostly sideways in a moderately volatile session. Divergences between intraday bullish power and neutral or bearish oscillators highlight persistent uncertainty.

Sideways movement likely as weak momentum limits upside scenarios

For the next five sessions, ADA is likely to fluctuate within a volatility band between $0.370 and $0.410. The probability of a short-term price increase remains very low (less than 20%), making further declines more likely. Barring a sustained move above resistance at $0.397, ADA’s baseline scenario points to continued sideways movement. A break below the Ichimoku Kijun support could trigger renewed selling, in line with persistent negative momentum signals.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Cardano as holding near-term support, but still constrained by lackluster momentum and persistent macro uncertainty. He views the latest network upgrade and ETF speculation as constructive for long-term sentiment. However, the analyst believes regulatory risks and unresolved bearish pressure limit upside potential in the coming sessions. "If ADA can hold above $0.383 while macro sentiment stabilizes, I expect renewed interest, but for now, sideways action remains the base case."

Previously it was reported that Cardano is trading just above its short- and medium-term moving averages, finding dynamic support near the Ichimoku Kijun, but remains under pressure from a significantly lower long-term moving average. Momentum indicators such as RSI, MACD, and ADX signal mixed to weak demand, with the asset likely to consolidate in a sideways range between defined support and resistance levels and a bias toward continued consolidation or downside.

Source of Data: ADA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.