Cardano shows upward momentum with 14,783 new wallets as user activity increases: weekly analysis

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Cardano gains 11.19% this week

Highlights

Cardano remains in a persistent bearish trend, trading well under all key moving averages with downside momentum prevailing.
Technical indicators—including MACD, ADX, and RSI—signal ongoing selling pressure, despite a weekly rebound of 11.19% to $0.167.
ADA is projected to trade within a volatile $0.134–$0.200 range over the next week, with sub-$0.134 closes risking further declines.

Institutional adoption and user growth offset by exploit and futures outflows

Clearstream, part of Deutsche Börse, has added support for Cardano to its crypto custody services, highlighting growing institutional interest in compliant digital assets. Cardano's network continues to advance with the ongoing Leios testnet development and progress toward the van Rossem hard fork, which promises performance and cryptography upgrades. Secondary factors include an 8% decrease in ADA futures open interest and the shutdown of wallet provider SecondFi following a $2.4 million ADA exploit, with efforts underway to return assets to users. The addition of 14,783 new non-empty wallets since June 23 signals increased active user participation.

Bearish momentum prevails as major averages and signals cap upside

On the weekly timeframe, ADA remains trapped below all major moving averages: MA-20 ($0.227), MA-50 ($0.434), and MA-200 ($0.479), with the MA-20 currently acting as the nearest dynamic resistance. Weekly technical indicators are decisively bearish, as confirmed by a Strong Sell signal from the MACD, as well as Sell readings from the ADX, RSI, and Commodity Channel Index. The Stochastic RSI is neutral, showing no immediate reversal signal, while both Bull/Bear Power and the Awesome Oscillator also validate ongoing seller dominance. Weekly volatility stands at 30.72%, though the price remains close to the lower end of its recent range.

Downside bias persists amid volatility and limited breakout prospects

For the next 7 days, ADA is expected to fluctuate within a price corridor of $0.134 to $0.200, reflecting high volatility but a bias toward further weakness given the lack of any bullish weekly signals. The probability of a sustained move above $0.200 is low, with less than a 20% chance of upward momentum. The baseline scenario is for the asset to move sideways within this range, while a close below $0.134 would likely accelerate the bearish trend and invite increased selling pressure.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, notes that Cardano (ADA) managed an 11.19% rebound this week but remains weighed down by persistent technical resistance. He highlights that ADA is still firmly below all its major weekly moving averages, while momentum indicators point to ongoing bearish pressure. Kharitonov sees institutional developments, like Clearstream’s support for Cardano, as positive, but believes these have failed to alter the overall negative sentiment. The rise in active wallets signals some network activity, yet is insufficient given declining futures interest and recent security concerns. For the coming week, he expects ADA to remain volatile within the $0.134 to $0.200 range, with a sideways movement as his base case. "As long as ADA stays trapped below the $0.227 level, I remain defensive and see little reason to trust any upward moves at this stage."

Earlier, analysts noted that Cardano's outlook remained constrained by persistent downside pressure and heightened caution following recent institutional developments and security incidents. This continues to hold true as ongoing technical weakness combines with evolving ecosystem upgrades and recent wallet user growth, underscoring a prevailing scenario of high volatility—where the primary risk for traders is a decisive weekly close below $0.134 that could accelerate further declines.

Source of Data: ADA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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