Avalanche price prediction: More downside ahead? AVAX drops below key averages

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Avalanche slides 2.88% today to $13.81

Highlights

Galaxy Digital issued the first tokenized collateralized loan obligation on Avalanche in January, a $75 million deal anchored by Grove’s $50 million investment.
Institutional adoption of Avalanche accelerated as its blockchain is leveraged for real-world asset tokenization and private credit settlement in structured finance products.
Avalanche C-Chain surpassed 950 million transactions and reached a cumulative burn of 5 million AVAX, signaling sustained network activity and usage growth.

Milestone CLO deal and rising activity drive institutional adoption

In January 2026, Avalanche achieved a key milestone as the underlying blockchain for the first tokenized collateralized loan obligation issued by Galaxy Digital, a $75 million deal anchored by Grove’s $50 million investment. This move demonstrates growing institutional adoption of on-chain private credit and real-world asset tokenization using Avalanche, positioning it as a core settlement layer for structured finance products. Additionally, the network reached a cumulative token burn of 5 million AVAX and surpassed 950 million transactions processed on its C-Chain, highlighting sustained network activity.

Bullish tilt weakened by mixed signals and low volatility

The nearest dynamic support on the daily timeframe is at the Ichimoku Kijun around $13.40, while the MA-50 now acts as the initial resistance. Momentum signals are mixed: the daily MACD suggests a modest bullish bias, but the ADX at 18.90 points to a weak and indecisive trend. Oscillators present divergence; the RSI reads neutral-bullish at 51.67, the Stochastic RSI indicates oversold, and the CCI remains neutral. Bull/Bear Power is overbought, signalling intraday buyer strength, while the Awesome Oscillator supports a bullish tilt. The daily price has declined 2.88% to $13.81, opening in line with the previous session's close ($14.22 vs $13.81, with a minor gap down). The price currently trades near the lower end of today's range ($13.68 – $13.86), reflecting low volatility and a tone of mild pressure after the open despite mixed momentum cues.

High downside risk persists amid strong bearish technical drivers

For the next five trading days, AVAX is expected to fluctuate between $12.50 and $15.00, a volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of a further price decrease is very high (more than 80%) based on dominant bearish signals from the weekly moving averages, RSI, ADX, and MACD. The baseline expectation is sideways consolidation around support between $13.50 and $14.00. A breakout above $14.00 – $14.40 could trigger a bullish move, while a drop below $13.40 might extend losses toward $12.50.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees near-term AVAX signals as mixed but leans cautious. He notes that strong institutional activity and network milestones have not offset persistent technical weakness. The analyst expects consolidation around $13.50 – $14.00, with significant risk of continued downside if support fails. "Base case remains sideways; if $13.40 is lost, expect further pressure toward $12.50."

Last time, analysts noted that Avalanche (AVAX) is consolidating just above immediate support, with price action retreating toward clustered short-term moving averages and RSI reflecting moderated momentum without oversold conditions. Technical structure remains constructive if the $14 level holds, with a reclaim of resistance near $14.60 needed to restore bullish momentum amid mild on-chain outflows and active but profit-driven trading.

Source of Data: AVAX Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.