Monero weekly forecast: strong momentum with price holding above key moving averages

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Monero advances 8.57% over the week

Highlights

Monero saw a surge in demand and trading volume after a $282 million hardware wallet scam led attackers to swap stolen Bitcoin and Litecoin for XMR via cross-chain protocols.
Dubai’s privacy coin ban and XMR delistings by Binance, OKX, and Kraken paradoxically fueled further Monero adoption as users shifted to assets with stronger privacy features.
Monero outperformed privacy-coin rival Zcash amid governance turmoil, reached new highs in social and on-chain activity, and benefited from renewed derivatives liquidity through Hyperliquid’s XMR perpetual swaps launch.

Demand spikes and adoption rise as scams and regulation drive flows

Monero experienced a surge in demand and trading volume after a $282 million hardware wallet scam, which prompted attackers to convert stolen Bitcoin and Litecoin into XMR via instant exchanges and cross-chain protocols. The asset also benefited from regulatory crackdowns, with Dubai banning privacy coins and major exchanges like Binance, OKX, and Kraken delisting XMR, which paradoxically spurred further adoption as users sought stronger privacy. Additional support came from a rotation out of privacy-coin rival Zcash amid governance turmoil and renewed XMR derivatives liquidity following the launch of XMR perpetual swaps by Hyperliquid. During this period, social and on-chain activity for Monero reached new highs, and institutional adoption of privacy-focused technology continued to rise.

Bullish trend holds as overbought signals warn of pullback risk

Technical conditions on the weekly chart remain bullish, with Monero continuing to trade well above key moving averages (MA-20 at $402.37, MA-50 at $327.36), reinforcing the medium- and long-term uptrend. After trading between $538.43 and $797.67, dynamic support is observed at the Ichimoku Kijun near $515.41, while initial resistance lies near $650. Weekly indicators highlight strong buyer dominance, with MACD and ADX both in bullish territory and the Awesome Oscillator supporting upward momentum; however, oscillators including RSI, Stoch RSI, and CCI signal overbought conditions, suggesting rising risks of a corrective pullback after the recent rally.

Sideways bias likely as breakout and correction levels define outlook

For the coming 5–7 trading days, Monero is expected to consolidate between $600 and $640, capturing recent volatility and the asset’s current price zone. The technical backdrop favors further strength, with an over 80% probability of sideways or higher movement as indicated by dominant trend and momentum readings. A sustained breakout above $640 could set the stage for a retest of highs near $650 or higher, while a notable drop below $600 would likely target the $515 Ichimoku support; however, the prevailing uptrend and robust weekly signals reduce the odds of an extended decline.

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, notes that Monero delivered a robust 8.57% climb this week, supported by fundamental shifts following industry scams, intensifying regulatory pressure, and a marked rotation from rival privacy coins. He sees sustained buyer momentum and strong trend signals with price holding well above key moving averages, but also acknowledges the risk of a short-term pullback as overbought conditions emerge across oscillators. Mehta points to the $600–$640 range as a key zone for tactical positioning, with a probable breakout above $640 inviting a retest of resistance. "Given the blend of momentum and overbought risks, I’m holding partial profits while watching for either a consolidation or a confirmed breakout beyond $640 this week."

Previously it was reported that Monero was displaying a bullish structure, trading decisively above its key moving averages and supported by dynamic daily Ichimoku levels, while resistance was building around the MA-50 and round number thresholds. Momentum readings, notably MACD and ADX, confirmed upside strength but several oscillators were in overbought territory, highlighting heightened short-term downside risk despite the prevailing uptrend and persistent intraday selling pressure.

Source of Data: XMR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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