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Bitcoin price prediction by CryptoQuant: Investors are getting used to losses
Most investors who bought bitcoin over the past two years are currently at a loss, according to CryptoQuant. Analysts say such periods of negative returns often become the groundwork for future rallies, as selling pressure gradually fades.
CryptoQuant reached this conclusion after analyzing the realized price of coins purchased between 18 and 24 months ago, which suggests that the majority of bitcoin investors are now underwater.
According to the company, sharp declines in financial markets often occur after periods when most participants are sitting on significant profits. At the same time, strong rallies usually begin when a large share of investors is in the red.
Analysts note that if bitcoin’s price drops below $60,000, nearly all investors—except the longest-term holders—would fall into loss territory. In such a scenario, the market could approach a point that has historically become favorable for more aggressive buying.
CryptoQuant’s boldest forecast
While CryptoQuant currently describes the market as difficult and “in the red” for most recent buyers, the firm has repeatedly stressed that such periods can become turning points.
In October 2025, CryptoQuant said that if strong demand continued, bitcoin’s price could rise to $160,000–$200,000 by the end of the year. The company argued that the market was entering the fourth quarter with conditions that had previously triggered major rallies.
In the same month, CryptoQuant also offered a more conservative target: $130,000 as the level where short-term holders typically begin taking profits. In the end, the market fell slightly short of that figure and, after reaching roughly $126,000, reversed and moved into a decline.
A market without panic
Despite the prolonged downturn, CryptoQuant notes that short-term bitcoin holders are not staging a mass sell-off. According to the firm, this group usually reacts first to news and sharp price swings, but there are currently no signs of panic profit-taking or forced selling due to losses.
Analysts believe this is an important signal: if the most sensitive participants are not selling, selling pressure may be weakening. When “weak hands” finish selling, the market typically begins to stabilize—and according to CryptoQuant, this appears to be the situation now.
Earlier, in February, CryptoQuant analysts warned that bitcoin could fall to $60,000. According to them, blockchain data points to a deepening downturn that now looks more severe than the initial phase of the 2022 bear market.
This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.
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